Fabulous Deer Valley!

These photos were taken on New Year's Eve, 2008. Wish you were here! Click to view.

Christmas in Park City

It is Christmas week in Park City and as it seems to be typical for the past few years it is snowing and snowing and snowing. We received close to a foot of snow last Friday. A few additional inches over the weekend and today is a full on white-out with an additional 12 to 20 inches expected. In addition, we are expecting an equally impressive storm on Christmas Day. Unlike most cities, ski towns are unique in that we eagerly anticipate and look forward to snowstorms, the larger the better.

Christmastime in Park City is a special time of the year. Main Street is very festive with lights and decorations. Visitors to town are busily shopping for last minute gifts and local restaurants are opening their doors to cold and hungry skiers. While this week before Christmas kicks off the holiday and ski season, the town does not become full until the day after Christmas. Once again Christmas visitors will find Park City piled high with snow and looking in every respect like the world class resort town it is. The improvements that all three Park City resorts have made over the summer add to the enjoyment of our skiers.

In real estate news, while the economy continues to teeter, buyers are here and many are finding extraordinary deals. Most everyone I speak with is convinced that we are close enough to the bottom of the market that combined with the lowest interest rates we have seen in years, that now is an excellent time to purchase for investment and personal use. The question that I ask everyone is “In three to five years do you feel that Park City/Deer Valley properties will be worth more than they are today?” The answers that I get are a resounding “Yes”. With this in mind, isn’t this the time to purchase your vacation property and start enjoying quality family time here in Park City?

Winter has arrived.

This past Saturday, winter finally arrived in Park City. Snow, cold, and more snow. It has now been snowing pretty consistently for three days. And while we’ve only received about a foot of snow out of this, it is white and looking very much like Christmas around here. The cold weather, high temperatures only in the teens, has allowed the resorts to make incredible amounts of snow. Snowmaking is running around the clock and the resorts are opening up new runs everyday. With Christmas week starting Friday, the snow and cold come just in time.
Last week I attended a panel discussion with several developers from Vail and Lake Tahoe. An interesting point from the developers in Vail was that when the Ritz-Carlton opened is doors in Beaver Creek they saw an immediate change in the type of visitor. The Ritz-Carlton brought a higher level of visitor that Vail had not seen before and they also experienced a sudden increase in real estate and a jump in prices. The point of this story is that we have two very high end hotels in the process of construction-the St. Regis and The Montage. The St. Regis is anticipating opening in 2009 and The Montage in 2010. The experience of these developers from Vail indicates that we will also experience a new type of visitor to Park City and, very likely, an increase in real estate prices. Factor into the mix lower real estate prices and a difficult economy and buyers of real estate in Park City this year could be feeling pretty smug in a year or two.
While the Christmas holidays are rapidly approaching, different property management companies tell me that there are still vacancies so make your plans and come visit Park City this Christmas.

Snow is on the way

Deer Valley Ski resort opened last weekend with a limited amount of ski runs open. The good news is WE ARE SKIING! Even better news is that a major pattern change in the weather is forecast for this Saturday. It appears that winter will finally arrive as storms are stacked up in the Pacific and are aimed at Utah. If the forecast holds true I expect that by the weekend of the 19th all of the resorts should be near to 100% open...just in time for Christmas.
Alta and Snowbird are about 70% open with terrific skiing. I expect to make the trip over to Alta this weekend to experience for myself the new snow. It looks like we may get several feet of snow over the weekend. And I will report on this next Monday.
In real estate news, while sales are certainly sluggish, they are not dead. Buyers are here and many are finding excellent bargains and are realizing that this is a great time to pick up a ski property. Instead of losing another ski season, without having a 2nd home here, deriving excellent income and enjoying the use of it, this really is a unique time and opportunity to invest in Park City/Deer Valley.
With Christmas rapidly approaching the town will be busy and the condos full. So plan a vacation in January when the skiing is fabulous and no one is here. The first two weeks right after Christmas is historically a very quiet time as everyone is recovering from the Christmas holidays. The last 10 days of January the Sundance Film Fesitval comes to town. While the town is crowded, the ski slopes are empty. The end of January is the perfect opportunity to have the mountains to yourself and be able to take in some of the Sundance films. Start planning your trip now and come see why Utah’s motto is “The greatest snow on earth”.

Let the skiing begin

Thanksgiving has come and gone and we are ready for the ski season. All we need now is snow. November started very strong with several feet of snow, but for the most part it has been warm and sunny since. The good news is that, for the most part, nights have been cold enough to make snow. All of the resorts have been making snow every chance they can get, which allowed Park City Resort to open last Friday and will allow Deer Valley Resort to open this Saturday.
Snowmaking itself is quite an art and the Park City resorts have it down pat. There are two basic types of snowmaking systems, one is an air and water system and the other is an airless system. The air and water system has two hoses, each connected to an outlet. One outlet pumping water and the other highly compressed air. The two hoses are then connected to a “gun” which is really just a mixing chamber with a nozzle at the opening. Highly compressed air is pumped into the chamber and water is injected into this. This is then forced out of the nozzle at very high speeds, which breaks the water into a super fine mist that freezes on contact with cold air and falls as snow. The airless system uses a long tube with a fan blade at the bottom end and a ring of water injection nozzles at the far end or opening. The fan pushes a large column of air through the tube and water is injected into this column at the opening. The airless system can produce large amounts of snow in very cold temperatures and has an advantage of being much quieter than the air/water system. Here in Park City we see the ski areas using the airless systems in areas around homes and condos. The air/water system has an advantage in that it can be used at much warmer temperatures than the airless systems. In the air/water system air is forced through a small nozzle at very high pressure. As the air leaves the nozzle it rapidly expands which causes a cooling effect. Thus, in marginal conditions this cooling effect creates an effective temperature lower than the actual air temperature. The drawbacks to the air/water system are that it is very loud and does not produce as much snow as the airless system. Another expense to the air/water system is that is requires huge air compressors to force the air up the mountain under high pressure and also requires cooling units as air is heated when it is compressed. So in an air/water system the amount of piping throughout the mountain is doubled (one pipe for air, one pipe for water) and air compressors and cooling units have to be added. All of which greatly increases the installation and operating costs. Snowmaking systems such as we run here in Park City can pump 5,000-10,000 gallons of water per minute and costs several thousand dollars per hour to operate. While extremely expensive, snowmaking guarantees skiing when Mother Nature is fickle.
Both Snowbird and Alta ski resorts have been open since early November. As these resorts are higher in elevation, with a base of 8,000 feet and a summit of around 11,000 feet the temperatures are colder, and because of their unique geographical location in the Wasatch Range, they both receive much more snow than the Park City side. Unique to Utah is the Great Salt Lake and its effect on snowfall. Particularly this time of year, the lake is fairly warm. As cold, low pressure systems sweep down from the northwest and pass over the Great Salt Lake, large amounts of moisture move from the warm lake water to these cold storms. (Most everyone has heard about the “lake effect” storms coming off the Great Lakes-most notably Lake Erie-and hitting Buffalo, New York.) These cold storms, having picked up moisture across the Great Salt Lake, continue moving southeast and are forced into the ever narrowing Big and Little Cottonwood canyons. As the moisture laden clouds are pushed into the canyons they are also pushed upward until, at the end of the canyon, they hit the wall of the mountains. At this point the clouds are pushed upward dramatically and can no longer hold the moisture. As a result, heavy amounts of snow fall from these clouds as they linger over the crest of the Wasatch.
As the storms roll over the crest of the Wasatch to the Park City Mountains, the air drops down the back side of the mountains, warms up and can hold more moisture. Another unique feature to Utah’s weather is the basin and range. Between the Wasatch Mountains of Utah and the Sierra Nevada mountains of California are a series of relatively small north-south running mountain ranges. As low pressure systems move in from the north they are preceded by strong south winds. These south winds are funneled between these north-south running mountain ranges and sweep across the desert basins. As these winds move across the desert they kick up large amounts of sand and dust which, combined with the clouds, create additional mechanisms for snow to form. This is nature’s version of cloud seeding and is unique to Utah. Because of all of these unique geographic features, Utah receives more snow than would be expected in a desert State, with Snowbird and Alta receiving the majority of it. One other point is that as these storms roll across the western desert, they tend to dry out, creating the “Utah fluff” that we are so famous for.
Now that you know why Utah receives so much snow and why it is so light and dry, makes plans to experience it for yourself. To paraphrase the great ski film producer, Warren Miller, “If you don’t ski Utah this season, you’ll just be one year older when you finally do.”

Snowy Election Day

It is Election Day here in Park City and snowing very hard. Looking out my window I see several inches of snow on the rooftops and the mountains are white. Forecast is for 1-2 feet by tomorrow afternoon and more snow this weekend and again next week. The resorts have all begun snowmaking, and with this cold storm they should be able to put down a good base in the next couple of weeks. Park City and The Canyons resorts are scheduled to open November 21st and Deer Valley resort December 6th. We seem to have settled into a good stormy pattern after a very warm and dry October. This all bodes well for a great opening to the ski season.
It is Election Day in America, and it appears that the world economy is cautiously optimistic about a change in administration. The US stock market is up strongly again today, which seems to imply that the large investors feel that, whoever wins, it will be a positive change from the current administration.
From talking with a variety of property managers here in town I have the feely that while everyone remains optimistic, there is a certain amount of nervousness. The holiday seasons are solidly booked, but the question remains how well the slower parts of the year will bear. The Deer Valley Ski School has been sold out of lessons for Christmastime and President’s Week for about a month. I suspect that the amount of snow we get, particularly early snow, will have a greater impact on visitor days than in the past years. I anticipate that many visitors will be taking shorter stays and will be booking closer to their scheduled vacation to see who has the best snow and conditions. Fortunately, Utah consistently receives excellent snow. Many writers in the ski magazines have said that “a poor snow year in Utah would be a banner year for most resorts.”
Last spring Delta Airlines, which has a hub in Salt Lake City, started a direct flight from Salt Lake City to Paris, France. This flight has been so successful that Delta is now considering a direct Salt Lake City to Tokyo flight as well. These should do wonders for our visitor days and increase profits for our property owners. As Utah is further west than Colorado and further east than California, both European and Asian skiers have traditionally not made the extra effort to get here. With the Paris, and hopefully Tokyo routes, we are anticipating a new market of European and Asian visitors, particularly with the strong Euro.
The snow is here, looks like more is on the way, and we are off to a great start to the ski season. I hope to see you here this winter. Meanwhile, click here to enjoy photos of beautiful Park City, Utah.

End of Fall?

September and October are typically two of the prettiest months in the mountains. And this October has been exceptionally beautiful. The past couple of weeks have been spectacular with days in the lower 60s, and cold nights. The perfect weather for hiking, biking and even late season golf. It seems like the entire town has been outside taking advantage of these days, as we know that long winter is about to arrive. The NWS forecast is for the weather to turn this Friday, with rain turning to snow over the weekend and continuing well into next week.
With the world financial market continuing to be in disarray, our local real estate market also continues to be vulnerable to market uncertainty. While there have been buyers surfacing to take advantage of tremendous deals, others have seen their net worth diminish significantly and are having to pull back from second home purchases. For those who understand the real estate market, and that it will turn around and prove to be a terrific investment, there are tremendous opportunities right now. Here are links to three different articles that have been written in national publications on the opportunities to invest in vacation properties.

5 Timely Reasons to Invest in Vacation Property;
Wallstreet a Faceplant for Skiers?;
Talking Points: Second Homes

Even amidst all the turmoil, construction on new ski properties in Deer Valley continues. The St. Regis Hotel, in the Deer Crest area of Deer Valley, is moving right along. The St. Regis is a little over 50% sold out and is expected to open for next year’s ski season. Nakoma is an 18 unit subdivision of ski-in/ski-out homes in the Empire Pass area of Deer Valley. Of the nine homes in the first release, five are sold, and most of these should be completed and closed this ski season. These homes are around 5,500 square feet, have spectacular views of the new Lady Morgan Lift, and have prices starting at $5,600,000. The Montage Hotel is also moving forward with construction, with an expected completion date sometime in 2010. While there has not been any release of the number of units, the layout or prices, a waiting list for purchasing is growing.
All three local ski areas are wrapping up their summer projects, have tested their snow making systems, and are ready to make snow as soon as the temperatures drop low enough. While advanced reservations are running slightly behind this time last year, we feel that once the snow arrives, bookings will increase. History has shown us that skiers are making their reservations closer and closer to the actual dates of their trip so as to see where the best snow is and who has it. Fortunately, Utah is geographically situated to receive dependably abundant amounts of snow. This year in particular we feel that the ease of getting to the Utah ski resorts will make us even more attractive to the destination skier. We expect to see more long weekends, and less week or longer stays. For visitors coming for only a three or four day stay, the fact that they can fly direct to Salt Lake City from almost anywhere in the country, and be here in about 4 hours, gives us a unique advantage over the other Rocky Mountain ski resorts.

Interesting Times

The wild fluctuations in the stock market in recent weeks have created a lot of uncertainty in the real estate market. While I hear too common phrases among potential buyers, “The money that I expected to use for a real estate purchase has gone with the drop in the stock market” and “I want to wait for things to calm down before I make a move”.
Last week Warren Buffet wrote an interesting article on why he is investing his personal money in the stock market and I feel that his thoughts also relate to real estate as an investment. Mr. Buffet had a great comment last week, stating that “When others are greedy, be fearful. And when others are fearful, be greedy.” To paraphrase Mr. Buffet on another comment, “I cannot tell you where the real estate market will be next month, in six months, or even next year. But what I can tell you is that this will pass and real estate prices will once again increase.”
Right now savvy real estate investors are purchasing. Today’s buyers are looking to purchase at rock bottom prices and while not every seller is willing to discount severely, enough are. The real estate investor understands that this is an excellent time to purchase real estate as long as they are comfortable holding on to it through this temporary down turn. While we have seen many individual stocks loose 50% or even more of their value, we see real estate values holding strong. If real estate prices drop 15% in a given market it is usually headline news. So the conventional wisdom of purchasing in troubled economic times certainly holds true for resort real estate.
On a lighter note, we continue to enjoy a spectacular autumn here in Park City. Sunny days, beautiful fall colors and snow on the higher peaks have brought many of the locals out for hiking and mountain biking. I spent the weekend hiking the local mountain trails and can attest to the beauty.
The resorts are quickly putting the finishing touches on their summer projects in anticipation of another great ski season. Make your plans for this winter to come and visit Park City and experience all that we have to offer.

Winter...an impatient season in Park City

These photos were taken on October 12, 2008. Click here to view.

Fall Colors

It is that magical time of year when the mountains appear to be on fire from the brilliant fall colors. The aspens are at about their peak, brilliant gold and reds cover the mountainsides. This is one of the most beautiful times of the year in the mountains and we all make sure to take advantage of these days by either driving through or going hiking. This past weekend we also had our first significant snow of the year. So to see the brilliant colors contrasted with white mountain tops is something to behold. Click here for photos. http://www.flickr.com/photos/31150024@N03/show/

This past week’s economic news has sure made for interesting times in resort real estate. While people still are looking for a ski property for this winter, many are either nervous or are cautious, waiting to see what will happen. This is all very understandable as many investors have seen their portfolios drop in value. Real estate however, continues to hold its value and in many cases is a far more stable and safer investment. This past week we have seen stocks in companies such as AIG, Lehman Brothers, etc. drop 80 – 90%. During the same time the real estate headlines throughout the country shout that some markets have dropped by as much as 20%. As a result, we are seeing a number of investors moving from the stock market to real estate as a hedge for their money.

Over the weekend there was an AP article in a San Jose newspaper talking about the stability of the resort real estate markets and that the latest edition of Forbes Magazine listed Aspen, Colorado and Coeur D’Alene, Idaho among the best places to invest right now. Here is a link to the article. http://www.mercurynews.com/markets/ci_10630080

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several interviews with our local radio, TV stations and newspapers, all wanting to know how the real estate markets in the western resorts are fairing. The simple answer is that we are holding our own. While the number of sales is currently off (40 – 45% for most of the resorts) the actual sold prices are holding up. Prices in the resorts are flat to slightly up for the first half of the year. This reinforces my belief in resort real estate as a safer investment during turbulent times. We saw this in 2001 right after the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center, where the stock markets dropped considerably and were extremely volatile. At that time we had just come off of a very strong real estate run and had just witnessed the dot.com bubble burst. Once again, through all the turmoil, resort real estate held its own and by 2003 was rebounding. It will be very interesting to see what happens this time.

KPCW Radio Interview

On September 18 I had an interview with KPCW, our local Park City station, and was asked to speak about the Rocky Montain Resorts. Click on the link below to listen to this interview.

http://www.pcboardofrealtors.com/FilesGeneralMembers/Statistics/RMRA/Dennis%20Hanlon%20Presentation/dennis_hanlon_9-18.mp3

NEIGHBORING RESORTS

This past week, I had the opportunity to travel to Sun Valley, ID to meet with their agents as well as representatives from Jackson Hole, WY and Steamboat Springs, CO. This gatherings are always extremely informative as we exchange information on our respective markets and resort issues.

Sun Valley is going through some interesting times as they are finally looking to grow and build hotels near the resort in Ketchum. While I was there, their city council approved the first new hotel and are considering another three applications. This will be a major boost for their economy as Sun Valley is lacking in high quality accommodations. they are also looking at building a new airport 'down valley'. While this will allow for more reliable air transportation and allow for larger planes to fly in, it is being fought as the airport will be about 30 miles from the resort. Many fear that this will be just too far away for visitors.

Jackson Hole has developed the village at Teton, the base of the ski resort. they now have three spa resorts, including a Four Seasons. they have also just completed a new 9 hole golf course with home sites beginning to sell. After coming off of record years of real estate sales from 2005-2007, this year has started slow and they are down about 45% in number of transactions. This is pretty much the story that I am hearing from all of the resorts in the Western stats. However, the actual sold prices seem to be holding pretty steady.

The Steamboat Springs resort had been owned by American Ski Corporation, the same owners of The Canyons resort in Park City. ASC sold Steamboat two years ago to Intra West and this has been a positive move. Intra West has built new condos at the base of the resort as well as in the downtown area. As with many resorts, Steamboat is struggling with balancing growth with preserving open space and quality of life.

Going into the ski season, everyone is cautiously optimistic about real estate sales. Particularly here in Park City, we have seen an increase in interest and sales for the past six weeks. It appears that many buyers are looking to pick up a ski property prior to the upcoming ski season, and feel that with the slower market, this may be the right time to purchase. While I have not seen many "fire sales", sellers are certainly looking at offers and are coming off of their asking prices. This is an excellent time to take advantage of a slower market going into the ski season.

#1 Again

For the second year in a row and the 4th out of the last 8 years, the readers of Ski Magazine have voted Deer Valley as the # 1 ski resort in North America! Deer Valley was ranked ahead of Vail,# 2 and Whistler/Blackcomb # 3. Deer Valley's founder, Edger Stern, built the resort on the premise that skiers are looking for more than just a place to put on skis and slide on a mountain. Edger put customer service as his top priority and the results have paid off. Today's guest has come to expect a superior level of guest service, from the ski instructors, to lift attendants, to restaurant employees, to grooming. Deer Valley consistently is ranked the # 1 resort in these categories. Even though the resort has a reputation as being a 'tame' mountain, (wrongly so), our guests are looking for a vacation experience for the entire family. (if you are under the impression that Deer Valley is just a groomed intermediate mountain, come spend a day skiing with me)

Park City Mountain Resort climbed from # 6 last year to # 5 this year, and The Canyons moved from # 18 to # 13. With our consistent and high quality snow, ease of getting here, a vibrant town and many high quality restaurants, visitors realize that Utah and Park City can always be counted on for a wonderful experience. The October issue of Ski Magazine comes out later this week and it is the most read issue of the year. Skiers are now planning their vacations for the year and are looking for the poll, but more importantly, the readers comments on their experience. When reading the polls, it is interesting to see that the visitor is looking for more than just skiing. They are looking for town, a variety of activities other than skiing, quality lodging, and ease of travel. We are finding that travel has become so cumbersome lately, that families are looking for resorts with direct flights. Having to make connecting flights to resorts, with airline delays, weather delays and the hassle of the airports is just not acceptable any longer. Salt Lake City, with it's international airport and only an easy 30 minute drive to Park City makes us the easiest resort to visit in the West.

Consumer outlook up, housing bottom may be near

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

NEW YORK -Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested that a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9, up from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006, and is ahead of the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January — but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.
"It's still too early to call a bottom" on both confidence and housing, said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.
Sales of new homes rose in July, but still fell short of economists' expectations, and home prices continued to sink. Still, the July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.
"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. However, "overall readings are still quite low by historical standards, and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
Economists and investors closely monitor consumer sentiment as consumer spending represents about two-thirds of all economic activity.
Falling gas prices in recent weeks helped boost consumers' mood, Franco said. Gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations nationwide, released Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.70 on Friday.
Despite that, gas nationally was almost 95 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, and the volatility in oil prices are a big concern for investors. But Tuesday's reports helped offset a spike in oil prices that rose out of concerns Hurricane Gustav might hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.86, or 0.05 percent, to 11,392.11.
The Conference Board's index that measures shoppers' current assessment of the economy declined to 63.2 from 65.8 in July. But the one that gauges their outlook over the next six months jumped to 52.8 from 42.7 in July. The 10-point increase marked the biggest gain since November 2005, when the economic fallout of hurricane Katrina was subsiding.
Franco said that declines in the Present Situation Index, both in term of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating.
While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.
"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report showed that 14 cities in the monthly index showed improvement from May to June, but nine recorded positive returns. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units, the most since April. But sales in June had dropped to a pace of just 503,000 — down from previous estimates of 530,000 — to mark the worst performance since September 1991.
Economists projected sales to drop in July, but expected the pace to be around 525,000. Given June's sharp downward revision, the level of home sales in July wound up to be less than analysts were anticipating.
The Consumer Confidence report — derived from responses received through Aug. 19 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed people's current assessment of the labor market turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.0 percent from 30.2 percent in July, while those who found them "plentiful" declined to 13.1 percent from 13.6 percent. Their outlook for what's ahead in the labor market was less gloomy. The percent anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent.
—
AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa in Washington and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
2008-08-26 13:37:48

National and Local Real Estate News

Real estate continues to be at the forefront of both national and local news. On the positive side, the National Association of Realtors reported that housing sales rose by 6% for the month of July. This is the third straight month that housing sales have increased. The down side is that the average sales price of a home continues to decrease and is about 6% lower this year than at the same time in 2007. What this indicates to me is that buyers are out there buying, but are looking for deals and, in many markets it is mostly foreclosures or short sales that are selling. On this thought, I saw a very interesting video clip from Good Morning America radio interviewing Donald Trump and his thoughts on real estate. Click on the link below to go to this video clip:

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5576708

Whether you like or dislike Donald Trump, he should be respected for his real estate savvy, and he feels that now is the best time to buy. He goes on to say that he has not seen better opportunities to purchase real estate for at least 20 years. I feel that same way here in Park City in that there are more opportunities to pick up a “deal” than I have seen for many, many years. It appears that I am not alone with this thought as we are definitely seeing an increase in activity. I attribute this increase to buyers feeling that we may be close enough to the bottom of the market that now is a good time to buy and that while we are approaching winter, we are still far enough out that sellers are still negotiating. History has taught me that the closer we get to the opening of the ski resorts, the less flexible sellers become.

As I mentioned in last weeks blog, this past weekend was the Deer Valley Jazz Festival, and what a weekend it was. Perfect late summer mountain weather and fabulous music made for a memorable weekend. Everyone I talked to felt that if this was not The Best Festival, it was certainly right up there. It’s hard to believe that next weekend is Labor Day weekend, but fall is definitely in the air here. The nights have cooled off dramatically, with the occasional frost. I expect to see the first leaves changing in a week or so. With the arrival of fall, excitement starts building for the upcoming ski season and the resorts scramble to get all of their summer projects completed. Stay tuned for future articles detailing the improvements that each of the resorts has made for the ski season…

Jazz Fest

This weekend is the annual Jazz Festival at Deer Valley. (http://www.parkcityjazz.org/) The headline acts for this year’s festival are Blues Traveler, Big Bad Vodoo Daddy and the Rippingtons. This three day event runs Friday through Sunday at the amphitheatre in Deer Valley. Also performing at the festival will be the Park City High School Jazz Band. The Park City High School Jazz Band is quite well know and has won numerous awards throughout the state and the country. The outdoor amphitheatre in Deer Valley is a terrific venue for concerts, located at the base of the resort with excellent views of the local mountains. As you can see from the headline acts, the festival is not a pure jazz festival, but a combination of jazz and blues. If you are an aficionado of jazz or blues, this annual event should be on your calendar of must “to dos”.

The various golf course communities around the Park City area continue to flourish. Last weekend I was fortunate enough to have an opportunity to play at the Glenwild Golf Course, designed by Tom Fazio. The Glenwild course is an 18-hole championship course, set in a beautiful valley just to the north of Park City, with spectacular views of the Wasatch Range. The clubhouse at Glenwild is arguably the most beautiful of all the clubhouses around the area, with outdoor dining overlooking the golf course with views of all three Park City ski resorts. While Glenwild does offer a pool and tennis courts, the emphasis is certainly on the golf. Our Glenwild is a small community which is just about completely sold out, offering only re-sale lots and custom homes.

Last week I was at the Promontory Golf Course showing homes to a prospective buyer. Promontory has two golf courses, a Pete Dye Championship Course and the newly completed Jack Nicklaus Signature Course. I have not had the opportunity to play the Nicklaus Course yet, but word has it that is probably the best course in the state. Promontory differs from Glenwild in that, while golf is certainly the major attraction, it is not their only focus. Promontory has a wonderful spa/clubhouse with an indoor/outdoor pool adjoining a Children’s Center and a Members Clubhouse. Promontory also features an equestrian center, tennis courts and many miles of hiking/biking trails. Come winter the center court of the tennis facility converts to an ice skating rink and the hiking/biking trails convert to cross country ski trails. Promontory has made a conscious effort to offer recreational activities for the entire family. Promontory expects to start its third course this next summer which will be an Executive Course.

Tuhaye, one of the newest courses in town, features a Mark O’Meara Signature Course and is situated just to the east of Park City. Along with the golf pro shop, Tuhaye has completed it spa and fitness center with an outdoor pool and poolside café. This past Sunday I was fortunate enough to spend the afternoon at the Tuhaye pool overlooking the golf course with views up to Deer Valley. We decided that the views from the Tuhaye pool are the best of the three resort spas. Next in works for Tuhaye will be the Members Clubhouse and a 9-hole Executive Course. Tuhaye also has plans for an 18-hole Fazio Championship Course.

Just under way in the neighboring town of Heber is a new golf course community called Red Ledges. Red Ledges is also featuring a Nicklaus Signature Course and offers incredible views of Mt. Timpanogos. The course is well under way and at least 9 holes should be open by next summer. Currently Red Ledges is selling home sites and will soon be offering patio homes for sale as well.

As with many ski resort towns, Park City is going through a change from strictly a ski town to a Four-Seasons Resort and Golf Mecca. If you are a golf enthusiast, high altitude golf is extremely enjoyable as the thinner air allows us to feel like John Daly. The local courses should be open well into October so make plans to come out and visit us and enjoy the beautiful fall weather.

An interesting article...

Editor’s Note: The following information is compiled from a White Paper recently released by the author. The White Paper is titled, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about Housing Market” and can be accessed by clicking here.
RISMedia, Aug. 14, 2008 - When it comes to the national housing market, there is a lot of gloom and doom in the daily newspaper. Just look at a few recent headlines:
“Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble” - USA Today, 7/16/08“Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips” - New York Times, 7/27/2008“Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall” - The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/2008
“Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper everyday.” - Phil Gramm, top economic advisor to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Lost amid the uproar caused by Gramm’s proclamation that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” was a breath of economic fresh air to Realtors nationwide.
The economic recession that the United States is facing has been portrayed in the media as being brought about by the rising cost of oil and the “burst bubble” in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil continues to stand at near record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?
A recent report contributed to RISMedia, “Why 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” simply states “no.”
While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
“You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession,” said Gramm on July 9.
According to statistics from City-Data.com, 54 of the 101 cities with the largest population increase from 2000 - 2006 are located inside California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona - the four states most affected by decreasing home values.
As the populations in these areas have settled, home starts continued…and speculation caused a rapid rise in home values. Now, there is an enormous real estate surplus, and those same four states are witnessing an economic period of leveling out.
Just because four states are still falling, and 11 other states continue to try and stabilize doesn’t mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge. According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company’s “Economic & Real Estate Trends” report for Summer 2008, almost 68% of the nation’s 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter when Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI’s calculations.
For nearly 63% of Americans, the worst of the “housing crisis” seems to be over. As recently as late July, while economists were still not ready to call a bottom, positive signs began to show for home sales and home values.
To access the complete White Paper, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” click here.
John Benson is a real estate analyst who helped lay the groundwork for many startups across the Mid-Atlantic, and now works with Realtors in the region as a new media and marketing consultant. He welcomes your questions and comments. Contact him via e-mail: jbenson304@gmail.com.
RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.

Real Estate Update

The summer months are busy times for developers in the Park City area. This is the time of the year to get developments going and closed in before the winter snows arrive. There are several new developments of interest this year.

Saint Regis in Deer Crest at Deer Valley is showing good progress with about 7 of the 11 stories completed. Saint Regis is a high-end ski-in, ski-out hotel located directly on the ski runs of Deer Valley. As of today, the Saint Regis is about 50% sold out with prices ranging from about $1,800 – $2,000 per square foot. The first 7 floors are hotel units which will come fully furnished and owners are required to put those in the Saint Regis rental pool. Floors 8-10 will be apartments where owner’s will pick and design their own furnishings and there is no requirement for rentals. The entire 11th floor was purchased by one individual for his personal and corporate use. Along with direct ski-in, ski out access, the Saint Regis will feature a slope side ski-to pool and all of the spa amenities Saint Regis is so famous for.

Another resort hotel in Upper Dear Valley next to Empire Lodge is the Montage. The Montage is a very high-end boutique hotel which will feature a 30,000 square foot spa area. Currently the Montage is operating a hotel in Laguna Beach, California and has another hotel under construction in Malibu, California, as well as the one in Deer Valley. No units or floor plans have been released yet, but we are anticipating a release of the first phase later this fall or early winter. We expect that prices for these units will be in the $2,500 per square foot range. The Montage is located at the base of the Empire Pass Lift and is in the heart of the best skiing in Deer Valley. This is a project to keep an eye on as early investors should do well.

Other developments at Empire Pass include Red Cloud, which is a 30 lot subdivision at the top of the Northside and Red Cloud lifts. There are currently 4 homes under construction of which one is a spec home that will be offered for sale this winter. In the Village at Empire Pass the new Flagstaff condominium building is well under construction and is about 25% sold out. At the Talisker Tower, which is a members-only Club House (featuring a lounge, weight room, outdoor pool and spa) they are completing the plans for about 20 luxurious condominiums. All of the residences at the Village at Empire Pass offer direct ski-in, ski-out access to the Silver Strike Lift and membership in the Talisker Club, which includes both the on-mountain amenities as well as the golf course at Tuhaye.

At the base of the Park City Resort, the Silver Star project is nearing completion. Silver Star offers condominium apartments, townhouses and single family homes all with direct ski access from a new lift put in specifically for Silver Star. Silver Star is located on an old mining site and the developers were careful to retain not only the mining flavor but also to restore many of the old mine buildings. Several of the restored mine buildings will be used as an Artist Colony and will become the headquarters for the Sundance Film Festival. An interesting feature at Silver Star is an old mine tunnel that in the early days of Park City Resort was used to transport skiers to the upper lifts of the mountain. To do this, skiers got on an old mine train, went through the mountain and then took a hoist up to the base of what is now the Thaynes Lift. Silver Star will be restoring parts of this and using it as a museum.

At the base of the existing resort center is a new development called the Lowell. The owner’s of the Lowell purchased an existing condominium building, gutted it and have replaced it with about a dozen very contemporary condos. This is the first new development at the Resort Center in many years, and has been well received. There are only six units left.

At The Canyons Resort the big news is that Talisker Corporation, who is the developer of the new Empire Pass Area at Deer Valley as well as the Tuhaye Golf Course just outside of town, has closed on the purchase of the resort. While Talisker is still putting together their plans for development, we expect that the first improvements we will see will be in snowmaking and food service. Both of these areas were in dire need of improvement and unfortunately the previous owner, American Ski Corp. was in financial trouble and just did not have the means to develop the resort to its true potential. There are several new condominium developments under construction both at the base of the resort and further down valley. A new access lift is currently under construction to access these new developments.

The Colony, which is a very high-end ski-in, ski-out residential development is also in the process of installing a new access lift to enable skiers to return from the southernmost part of the resort back to the main area quickly and directly. The Colony is a spectacular home site development offering home sites of 5–100 acres. Covered with aspen forest and spectacular panoramic views, The Colony is probably the most beautiful of the residential developments in this area.

As you can see, Park City/Deer Valley continues to develop new properties with buyers from around the country purchasing many of the developments before they are completed. If it has been a while since you have visited Park City/Deer Valley, or have never looked at it from a real estate perspective, summer is a terrific time to look around and see what all the activity is about.

Art Fest Weekend

This coming weekend, August 1st, 2nd and 3rd is the annual Park City Arts Festival. This is such a great event with Main Street being turned into one big party. As with many events in park city, Main Street is closed to all vehicles, and vendors from all around the country set up tents to display their wears. Entry into our Arts Festival is limited and the competition to be allowed to participate is fierce. Judges from the Kimball Arts Center begin reviewing applicants during the winter months and by early spring have made their selection as to who they will allow in the year’s festival. With our close proximity to Salt Lake City and the cooler mountain temperatures a large number of Salt Lake City visitors make the drive up to partake in the festival. Friday night has become an advanced showing for the locals and is a terrific party. Everyone we know is out on the street looking at the art and drinking wine in an uncrowded and less hectic atmosphere. Saturday and Sunday is the main festival and we typically draw about 100,000 visitors for this.

Last week wrapped up the girls Fast Pitch Softball Tournaments here in town. This was a three week event featuring teams from all over the country and was, as usual, a huge success. At the ski resorts the lifts are running for hiking and lift-serve mountain biking. And as I mentioned last week, the trails are beautiful with lush foliage and wild flowers.
We are definitely seeing an increase in activity in real estate. Not only have I been seeing an increase in calls and interest from buyers, in looking at the daily sales sheets from the board of realtors, the number of sales has increased dramatically in the last couple of weeks. As the summer wanes and we get closed to fall, we typically do see an increase in business as people are looking to pick up their property for next winter’s ski vacations. Even though much of the news these days is filled with stories about how difficult it is to obtain financing, which while it is certainly more difficult than in past years, financing is obtainable for qualified buyers. Interest rates are low and combined with a wide variety of available vacation homes, buyers are feeling that this is the time to purchase

Music in the Mountains

Summertime, mountain resorts and music just seem to fit together, and Park City is no exception. During the summer evenings one can find a free music venue just about anywhere in town featuring an assortment of local musicians. New this year is the Sky Lodge at the bottom of Main Street. When the Sky Lodge opened last December and re-opened its restaurant Easy Street they had the foresight to include a wonderful outdoor seating area with a stage perfect for summer evenings. This has been a favorite place to relax on a weekend, have a nice glass of wine and listen to some wonderful local music. Mountain Town Stages is a local organization with the charter to put on free music events around town and the local areas. Mountain Town Stages is the driving force behind the Wednesday free concerts. These concerts first started in the early 90s in City Park. By 2004 they had become so popular that they outgrew the park and moved to Deer Valley Resort. These Wednesday concerts are the highlight of the week and a place for everyone to get together, listen to some fun music and catch up with friends that we may not see for the rest of the week. If you are here during the summer months, this is a must attend event.

In real estate news, I was looking at the latest statistics provided by the Park City Board of Realtors comparing 2007 and 2008. Through June 30th in 2007 the Park City Board of Realtors has recorded 1,235 closed transactions. For the same time frame in 2008 the number dropped to 711 closed transactions. Interestingly enough, the average sold price for these sales went from $815,085 in 2007 to $869,919 in 2008. This would seem to indicate that the average value of a property increased about 5% last year. As with all stats, these numbers can be misleading and this is one of them. While it is true that the average sold price has increased, it is due to a significant number of sales being new construction at or near the ski resorts. Because of land cost and construction costs, newly built homes and condos are more expensive than existing homes and condos. The reality is that existing homes and condo prices are at best, flat from last year and, in more cases than not, down slightly. Since we know that all trends, whether up or down, do change over time this is an excellent time to purchase. Yesterday I was with a past client who had purchased a vacation home this past December. He could have lamented the fact that had he waited, he might have gotten a better deal. But instead was thrilled that he purchased when he did. His feeling was that not only did he get his home at a good price, but he had the advantage of being able to use it this last ski season. He mentioned that he had many friends come out this past winter and stay with him and commented on how lucky he was to have a place here.

All of the factors that have contributed to our growing Real Estate Market are still in place in spite of the weakening economy. We are an easy to reach and very desirable 2nd home community with a wide variety of real estate opportunities. This has not changed, and the desire to own real estate here is as strong as ever. Don’t let the scare headlines from the media prevent you from pursuing your dream of a 2nd or vacation home in whatever area you are interested in.

Hiking in Park City

July is one of the best months for hiking in the local mountains. With the late and very wet springs that we just had, the wild flowers are just now in full bloom. As we walk along any of the numerous trails in Park City there is an amazing array of colors with Columbine, Lupine, Bluebells and Mountain Daisies all in full bloom. Walking under the canopy of towering Aspens, it is easy to get distracted. It is also the time of year that deer and moose are taking advantage of the tender new foliage and are constant companions on the trails. We are very fortunate here in Park City to have an organization such as the Mountain Trails Foundation which builds and maintains many miles of hiking/biking trails. One of the most popular trails is know as the mid-mountain trail. This trail begins at mid-mountain Deer Valley at an elevation of 8,200 feet and follows the 8,000 foot contour across the mountains through Park City Mountain Resort, the Canyons Resort and ending just to the north of the Utah Olympic Sports Park. One of the great things on this trail is that there are numerous entry and exit points so that whether you have all day or just an hour or two, there are wonderful loops.

One of my favorite areas for hiking is in the Uinta Mountains just to the east of Park City. The Uinta’s contain most of the high elevation peaks in Utah, with peaks ranging from 12,000 to over 13,000 feet, contain about 500 lakes and, for the most part, is a wilderness area accessible only by hiking or horseback. This range offers spectacular views and is a must visit for outdoor enthusiasts coming to Park City.

In real estate news, I am seeing some signs of an improving real estate market here. I’ve been receiving an increased number of calls lately for people looking to pick up an investment or ski condo this summer. And while the national economic news is still pretty dismal, many buyers are beginning to look at our prices as a good investment. Last week I visited a new golf course project called Red Ledges in a neighboring town of Heber, about 20 minutes from Park City. Red Ledges will feature a Nicklaus Signature course as well as a Cliff Drysdale Tennis Academy, and offer some of the most beautiful view of Mount Timpanogos and the Wasatch Range. The golf course is currently under construction and at least nine holes are expected to be open for next summer.

The Mark O’Meara course at Tuhaye is now in it’s third full season of operation and people that I have taken there to play feel that it is the most interesting and enjoyable of the private courses around the area. Lot and home sales in Tuhaye are doing well and I have been meeting several new owners who are calling Tuhaye “Home”

Upcoming events to look forward to is the Park City Arts Festival the first week of August and the Deer Valley Jazz Festival August 21-24. If your schedule permits you to visit Park City during any of these times these are definitely events to participate in.

I’ve moved!

The big news here in Park City this week is that I have left Sotheby’s Real Estate and moved to Prudential Utah. As with any change, there are always a variety of reasons, but one of the most compelling for me is that Prudential has by far and away the largest percentage of the market. This is a move that I feel will benefit both my Sellers and Buyers. I am currently located in the Prudential office on historic Main Street with many of the top agents from Prudential. The energy level and excitement are contagious and I look forward to this next stage in my career.

This past weekend was 4th of July and the Park City parade was as quaint and fabulous as always. Where else but in a western mountain ski town can you have a float featuring a real snowman made from snow still up on the ski resorts? The parade was followed by festivities in City Park, music, games, rugby, volleyball and all that is traditional for a 4th of July celebration. The day’s activities were capped by a spectacular fireworks display shot from the base of the Park City Resort against the mountains.

Here is a link to an interesting article that I found in Travel + Leisure GOLF Digest. It is an article from a writer who has been here in the winter time but came out last summer and played several of our beautiful mountain golf courses. Enjoy the article, and if you are a golfer I hope this will entice you visit Park City in the summer, as we all know how spectacular the winter is. If you are lucky enough to visit Park City this summer, please stop in the Prudential office at the bottom of Main Street and say “hello”.

http://www.travelandleisure.com/tlgolf/articles/golf-the-greening-of-park-city

July 4th Week

Today starts the July 4th holiday week as well as the official start to summer in Park City. Finally! The holiday is a very festive time in Park City with free concerts both Wednesday and Thursday evenings at Deer Valley and The Canyons resorts and then on Friday the Utah Symphony comes to Deer Valley. July 4th is a special time in Park City with the parade down Main Street in the morning, activities in the City Park all afternoon and then fireworks that evening. There is nothing quite as much fun as a small town July 4th parade. Kids on bicycles, skate boards and in-line skates, families that are gathered for the holiday and various service groups combine to bring much revelry to the day.

This past weekend we had national off-road biking championships at Deer Valley. This is an annual 3 day event and always attracts the top riders throughout the country. We’re also gearing up for the annual girl’s fast pitch softball tournament, which runs for about three weeks. This tournament continues to draw more and more entries every year, has expanded from its original two weeks to three and we have built several new softball fields to accommodate the girls.

It is a spectacular time of year to hike and bike the numerous trails around town. The wild flowers are in full bloom and the mountains are as green as I have ever seen them at this time of year. The mid-mountain trail is the most popular trail and runs from Deer Valley to The Canyons Resort. This trail follows a contour at about 8,000 feet and traverses the Wasatch Range across many ridges, gullies and streams. With many entry and exit points to this trail it is very easy to get on it and hike or ride whatever distance is comfortable.

July is great time to be in the mountains. The days are warm, the evenings are cool and the weather is as good as it gets!

Summertime in Park City

This past Friday Park City celebrated the summer solstice with a party on Main Street featuring live music and great food. We revisited an old Park City tradition by putting a long table down the center of Main Street with restaurants serving dinner to guests. This was accompanied by live jazz music of which the highlight was the Park City High School Jazz Band. The Park City High School Jazz Band has won numerous awards throughout the country and was definitely the hit of the evening. Music and revelry lasted well into the night.

This week we are enjoying the calm before all of the 4th of July festivities start. This Wednesday really kicks off the summer season with the first of the free Deer Valley Wednesday Night Concerts. These free concerts feature local musicians and are the highlight of each week. Residents and visitors turn out in great numbers to sit on the lawn at Deer Valley with dinner and wine, re-acquaint themselves with friends they haven’t seen over the winter, and enjoy a beautiful summer evening.

All of the golf courses are open and going strong. The course maintenance people have done a spectacular job of bringing the courses back from a very long winter and while there is still snow in the mountains, it’s wonderful to see the lush, green fairways of our local golf courses. The new Jack Nicklaus Signature Course at Promontory is now in its first full summer of play and the word is that it is perhaps the best course in Utah. I hope to be able to make this determination personally in the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile I have played the Mark O'Meara course at Tuhaye several times over the past month and have thoroughly enjoyed the experience. The views and terrain changes at Tuhaye are spectacular and make for a very interesting round of golf.

In real estate news, we are definitely seeing an increase in business. Summer visitors are here and are now looking to purchase properties that they saw last winter, and in anticipation of the upcoming ski season. As I have mentioned several times, the summer months are the perfect time to pick up a vacation property. It is easy to get into all of the properties and sellers tend to be more willing to negotiate now than during the busy winter season. So plan a vacation, come to Park City in the summer, and experience the warm days and cool nights of summer in the mountains.

Summer Arrives

Finally the winter that would not go away has ended and summer arrived this past weekend. Temperatures are in the high 70s to low 80s and everyone is finally out enjoying Park City. While the mountains still have snow and many of the mountain bike trails still have patches of snow on them, enough is open that hiking and biking are in full swing and the aspens are greening up nicely. This is a very interesting time of year watching the aspen trees leaf out in stages starting at the lowest elevations and working to the mountain peaks. The top of the mountains still have not leafed out yet, which will make for a very short growing season.

This weekend we are reviving an old tradition in Park City with a dinner and party on Main Street. This used to be called “Taste of Park City” where there would be one long table down the middle of Main Street where everyone would dine at their favorite restaurants, enjoying music and conversation. This has been revived as a benefit for the Park City Jazz Festival and will be a two day event with dinner on Main Street Friday night and a picnic in the park on Saturday. All of this will be accompanied by various Jazz groups as a prelude to the Park City Jazz Festival in August.

In Real Estate news, there seems to be an increased interest in Deer Valley condos in the last couple of weeks. Just recently three condos, all over a million dollars, have sold. With a four bedroom in Deer Lake Village setting a new price for that area. Whether this is an indication that we have bottomed out or not remains to be seen.

Snow on June 11

Have I mentioned that spring in the Rocky Mountains is never predictable? Neither is summer. These photos were taken this morning.

The historic and oft-photographed Miner's Hospital.

A few inches up here at Silver Lake, Deer Valley.

The Sterling lift at Silver Lake, Deer Valley.

And the Silver Lake Express in Deer Valley.

Local Press of the RMRA Event

We had an excellent turnout for the Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance meetings this last weekend, particularly to the event where the NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, spoke about the current market and housing trends. In addition to realtors, the local news media were present.

Utah housing market faring well; tax credit may help even more – KSL TV

Expert: Housing market will rally – Salt Lake Tribune

Hope for housing in Utah – Deseret News

Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance

This past weekend representatives of the Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance were in Park City for our spring meeting and education seminars. We had representatives from Sun Valley, ID, Jackson Hole, WY, Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge, Vail, and Telluride from Colorado, and Park City, UT. The purpose of the meetings was twofold: to share statistical and market information from the various resorts, as well as to participate in some presentations from national speakers. We were fortunate to have Doctor Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, speak to us. We had around 200 realtors in the audience, and Dr. Yun gave a very interesting presentation on the real estate economy with an emphasis on the western resorts.

Merging together Dr. Yun’s presentation and what we have heard from the media over the past year, brought some interesting clarifications. The media has pointed out on numerous occasions that the national foreclosure rate this year is double what it has been over the past years. This is an alarming statistic, that while true, we need to understand that the foreclosure rate has gone from 1% of mortgage holders to 2% of mortgage holders. So once again we see that the media in its effort to sell more papers and newscasts has sensationalized a truth that would otherwise be meaningless. Another point that Dr. Yun brought out is that the majority of this 2% of foreclosures is in the subprime market and many of those were investors who purchased with little or no money down, and just wanted to flip the property for a quick profit. If your goal is to flip a property for a profit, and you have little or no money invested in the property, it is pretty easy to just walk away if it doesn’t turn out the way you want. So in this light, the current economic condition that is discouraging the quick flipper is not bad news. Dr. Yun was very clear feeling that anyone who purchases investment property in any of the western resorts will likely see a 30% appreciation in the next 5 years. As I have been saying for quite some time now, this is an excellent time to purchase as prices are low, inventory is strong, and sellers are negotiating.

During the weekend, representatives from the various resorts gave a short presentation on their particular market and issues facing their resorts. We also had several social networking opportunities which allowed me to speak informally with each of the various resort representatives. The overwhelming conclusion was that while all of our markets had slowed, they were not dead. People continue to want their vacation property, but are tending to negotiate harder, and be more particular when they purchase. This is certainly true here in Park City.

Other than this, it is still snowing here in Park City and is supposed to snow again this week. We are eagerly awaiting summer.

Busy Week in Park City

Busy week in Park City About 12 years ago I created an alliance of boards of Realtors at destination ski resorts throughout the Rocky Mountain states. With the purpose of sharing market and resort information. The Rocky Mountain Resort Alliance has 12 member boards in four states plus British Columbia, Canada. Our members are in Utah, Colorado, Idaho, and Wyoming. This coming weekend we are holding our spring meeting here in Park City. There are about 20 Realtors from the non-Utah resorts coming here to share information on their markets and issues that are facing the resorts. Over the years this has proved to be one of the most informative and beneficial meetings that I attend. Even though I always hear news from the other resorts, it is best when I am able to speak with my compatriots one on one and be able to get an in depth picture of their market. Watch for a report on the meetings next week.

In local real estate news, business is definitely picking up. Late last week I received an offer on a townhouse in the neighboring community of Heber and yesterday I received a second and backup offer. We have not seen multiple offers in quite some time and hopefully this is an indication that for good properties properly priced, buyers are out there. Also late last week I received an offer on a Deer Valley condo that I have listed and while the negotiations are ongoing, buyer and seller are very close and I am confident that ultimately we’ll see a sale. For the end of May, early June when the town is still quiet, as it is still snowing every week, this activity is very promising for the summer. In speaking with a potential buyer this morning, I again reiterated (and he agreed) that whether it be two or three years from now we are going to look back at this year very wistfully. I suspect that many buyers are beginning to realize this and understand that while sellers are negotiating this may not be the case for much longer. Real estate markets and particularly resort real estate markets can flip from a Buyer’s Market to a Seller’s Market or visa versa very quickly and with little advance notice. The savvy investors understand that the time to purchase is not at the bottom of the market but as the market is approaching the bottom. All too often everyone waits for the market to hit bottom to purchase. If a significant number of buyers all come into the market at close to the same time the market quickly changes to favor sellers and buyers may have lost whatever gains they thought they had realized by waiting.

Big News in Park City

Big news in Park City this week is that President Bush is coming into town Wednesday and Thursday on a fund-raising trip for the Republican Party. President Bush will be staying at the home of Mitt Romney in Lower Deer Valley. I’ve heard that there will be at least one protest rally here in town, so it should be an interesting couple of days.

The Memorial Day holiday has come and gone, which for everywhere except for the mountains, is the start of the summer season. Not untypical, it rained and snowed all weekend here. Snowbird Ski Resort is still open on weekends and last Friday skiers were enjoying 17 inches of new snow in mid-winter conditions. Snowbird still has a base of 116” at mid-mountain. My guess is that in the high country the snow will not completely go away before the start of the next season.

In talking with my fellow Realtors in the other Rocky Mountain Resorts everyone feels that there is a disconnect between buyers and sellers. As I have mentioned in the past, many of our buyers are coming from markets that have been strongly affected by either the real estate or economic downturn and are expecting that the western ski resorts are in the same position. In the majority of the cases, however, our sellers are not in an anxious position, do not need to sell, and can afford to hold onto their properties until prices climb again. The unfortunate part of all of this is that buyers are not getting the properties that they want even though, by comparison, today’s prices are bargains. What I am afraid is going to happen is that in the not-too-distant future the market is going to rebound (we are already seeing signs of that), and today’s prices will be a thing of the past. A great quote is, “Quality of time remaining.” Meaning, how much is your time worth to have the property that you want now and enjoying it with your family? Unless the purchase is strictly for an investment it is important to understand that the time spent with our families spending quality time together does have a monetary value and should not be overlooked.

Powder Day in Park City!

It's Memorial Day weekend here in Park City and it is snowing hard. The forecast is for over 2 feet and the skiing is excellent!

This is a photo we just took of the outdoor dining patio at Silver Lake Lodge.

Calm before the storm

Summer, at least temporarily, has arrived in Park City. What a beautiful weekend! Temperatures in the 70s, golf course opened, barbecues going, and everyone taking advantage of the outdoors. However, as is all too typical for this time of year, snow is forecast starting Tuesday night through the weekend. As we get later in the spring the time between snowstorms gets longer and the weather is nicer. If this is a typical spring, we still have another three to four weeks that it can snow. It rarely snows after the middle of June.

As far as real estate goes in the Park City area, we are just beginning to see early signs of the market recovering. Buyers that have been looking throughout the winter are coming back to town and are writing contracts on properties. Additionally, the national economic news seems to be improving as well. There are signs that the economy is beginning to improve and more articles are appearing that we have not gone into a recession and probably will not. In talking with my fellow realtors from the other resorts, I am hearing that one of the reasons for the drop-off in number of offers having been written for the first quarter of this year can be attributed to the different expectations of buyers and sellers. With all the headline “doom and gloom” real estate news, and the factual downturn in the real estate market in areas like Florida, California, and Nevada, a growing percentage of buyers come into town expecting sellers to accept offers 30-40% off of their asking price. Here in Park City, as well as many of the other resorts, listing agents have always made an effort to counsel their sellers to put a price on their property that is realistic and within the expectations of whatever the current market is. We as agents find no value in letting our sellers list their properties at 20-40% over what they will take. We definitely advise our sellers that while they do need to leave a little room for negotiations, they need to price the property realistically and close to what they will accept. As a consequence, while buyers are frequently making offers substantially below asking price, the sellers feel that their price is fair, realistic, and they are not willing to accept offers that are significantly lower.

Because the market is significantly slower than it has been, we as agents are recommending to our sellers that they price their property aggressively, and at a point that it will actually sell. As a result, there are many excellent buys for the savvy investor. On a fairly regular basis, I see new listings come on at very favorable prices or older listings have a price reduction to make them favorable. For the smart investor who has cash, and can move quickly, there is an opportunity to make a lot of money in today’s market. This is not a market for the flipper who is looking to purchase a property, maybe make a few minor repairs and put it back on the market for a significant profit. Today’s market is such that a buyer who has staying power and can hold onto a property for a few years has an opportunity to see strong appreciation and a significant return on their investment. As with all of life, when looked at intelligently, a downturn in the real estate market can lead to an upside. A real estate investor from Florida that I spoke with yesterday mentioned that he was selling several condos to a cash buyer at deeply discounted prices. He mentioned that he is always looking for bargains, at which point I asked why he was selling the condos at such a discounted rate. I asked him if at that price would it be attractive for him to purchase, to which he answered, of course. So my obvious next question was, why are you selling and not holding onto them? Which he agreed with me, and is now going to hold onto them. Right now there are excellent opportunities in the stock market, financial markets, and certainly in real estate. The smart investor knows that trying to predict the bottom of any market is impossible, but to buy when prices are low will always be wise and profitable.

More Snow!

Spring in the Rocky Mountains is never predictable. This weekend was one of yardwork, planting, golfing and grilling. This morning, it had snowed again.

Spring Market Update

Spring has arrived and the snow is (very) slowly giving way to green grass and warmer days. May is an excellent time to reflect on the past real estate season and the outlook for the remainder of the year.

Market Analysis
This past winter was one of the most interesting that I have seen in my 19 years of real estate. Record snowfall brought incredible ski conditions, a record number of visitors to town, and the fewest number of real estate sales in over 5 years. It’s not that visitors did not want to own real estate here, but the constant barrage of negative press made buyers nervous, cautious, and wanting to wait to see what’s going to happen. Comparing the ski season, December 1, April 30 of this year to last year, here are some numbers: Number of Transactions for Single Family Homes is down 45%, and 44% for condos. Interestingly enough, during the same period the average sales price of a home went up 46% and the average sales price of condos rose 22%. In looking at the other destination ski resorts throughout the Rockies, I see that the same trend has occurred at the other resorts. This tells me that people continue to want vacation property and that our prices are still perceived as a good value. Whistler, in British Columbia, is the only resort in the west which reported an increase in number of condo sales (up 8%) and a 100% increase in sold price. This is understandable as Whistler is reaping the benefits of the upcoming 2010 Winter Olympics and the favorable exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.

Some specific areas of interest here in Park City are:

Old Town (including the Park City resort):
Single Family Homes were down 47% in number of sales (8 this year compared to 15 last year) and the average sales price was down 20 % ($1,376,000 compared to $1,712,000).
Lower Deer Valley:
Single Family Homes were down 71% (2 compared to 7) but up 7% in average sales price ($2,375,000 compared to $2,218,000).

Upper Deer Valley (Silver Lake):
The number of sales were off 43% (4 compared to 7) and the average sales price was down 2% ($5,411,000 compared to $5,507,000).

All of the areas within the city limits:
The number of home sales was off 26% (34 compared to 60) and the average sold price was down 3% ($2,419,000 compared to $2,500,000). This small decrease in sold price is reflective of resort markets where sellers generally do not have to sell, have the means to wait out a slowdown, and thus are not willing to drop their prices significantly.

For condominium sales:

Old Town (including Park City resort):
The number of sales was down 26% (54 compared to 73), but the average sold price was up 38% ($1,130,000 compared to $818,000). This is in large part due to the new Silver Strike project which was completed this winter.

Lower Deer Valley condos:
Number of sales were down 28% (13 compared to 18), and up 1% in average sales price ($1,195,000 to $1,188,000).

Upper Deer Valley:
Even in number of sales (11 compared to 12 last year), but average sales price was up 20% ($2,660,000 compared to $2,216,000).

For all areas within the city limits:
Condo sales were down 40% (108 compared to 180) and average sales price was up 24% ($1,331,000 compared to $1,075,000).

I frequently attend national real estate meetings where I make a point of speaking with agents from around the country. From my conversations, it appears that the resort real estate market is holding much stronger than many of the residential markets. Agents from the metropolitan non-resort areas for the most part are describing markets where the number of sales are down even more significantly than ours and sold prices are also significantly down.

From visitors that I spoke with and showed around this past winter it is very clear that they still want to buy here, will buy here, but are just looking for an increase in their comfort level. We saw this in 2001 and 2002 where terrorist attacks and wars created uncertain times, where buyers were also nervous and cautious about purchasing. In 2004 and 2005, confidence level returned and there was a pent-up demand for vacation properties throughout the West. At that time, all of the resorts experienced a frenzy of buying where properties were selling as fast as they came on the market, often with multiple offers. While no one can say when, I expect we will see something similar in the next couple of years. In 2007, many buyers that I had been working with for some time said to me, “Why didn’t you make me buy in 2005?!” In the next three years I expect that I will be hearing similar statements and that people who purchased during this downturn will be feeling very smug.

News on New Developments
Empire Pass at Deer Valley is moving forward. Last summer the second Arrowleaf building in Empire Pass was completed with all but one unit sold prior to completion. The Silver Strike condominium building is well under way and is expected to be completed early this summer. Last summer, the new Flagstaff condominium building broke ground and should be completed for the 2009/2010 ski season. The ski-in/ski-out homesites being built by Christopher Homes are under construction with two of the 18 homes pre-selling prior to completion. In addition nine lots in Red Cloud at the top of the mountain were released this winter and there were two sales in the Red Cloud subdivision, both well over $4 million.

Montage is a new luxury resort spa hotel under construction at the base of the Empire lift at Deer Valley. Completion is expected for sometime during the 2010/2011 ski season and we expect the first relase of condominiums to be late this summer or early this winter. The Montage will feature a 30,000 square foot spa, restaurants, and lounges. While no specifics have been announced as far as prices, floorplans, or sizes of units, we are expecting the first release to come out between $2,200 and $2,500 per foot. The Montage will certainly have the premier location of any of the resort hotel spas in Deer Valley and Park City. Watch for further updates as information becomes available.

The St. Regis Hotel in Deer Crest at Deer Valley is steadily progressing and about 65% sold out. Two units just sold this past week. The St. Regis will feature a spectacular slopeside pool, deck, and lounge area with ski access from the Deer Hollow ski run. There are only 25 units left with completion expected in early summer 2009.

Silver Star is a new development at the base of the Park City Resort, is ski-in/ski-out, and is a combination of condominium apartments, townhouses, and single family homes. The project is about 70% completed and was completely sold out prior to breaking ground. In addition to the residential community in Silver Star the developers have painstakingly chosen to preserve the mining heritage and have converted many of the original mine buildings into an artist colony which will be the home of next year’s Sundance Film Festival.

The big news at The Canyons is that earlier this winter, American Ski Corporation, the owner, dissolved, paving the way for the sale of the resort. There was a fierce battle between Vail Resorts and Talisker Corporation for the resort. Talisker is the developer of Empire Pass at Deer Valley and the Tuhaye golf community just outside of town. After several heated court battles, the courts have ruled that Talisker’s offer to purchase was legitimate and above board. This has paved the way for Talisker to purchase the resort and it is expected that they will close on the purchase as early as the end of May 2008. This is very good news for the Canyons, as it will bring a much-needed infusion of money, and energy back to the resort. In anticipation of this purchase, we saw good activity in an area called The Colony, a ski-in/ski-out home development adjoining the Canyons where six lots sold and two homes, one being a home listed for over $14,000,000 sold. When Talikser has completed the purchase of the Canyons and the news is released, I expect that there will be a flurry of activity for lots and homes in the Colony as well as the new condominium developments at the base of the Canyons Resort.

Very exciting news at the Canyons is that a new condominium project called Dakota has aligned itself with Golden Door Spas and the Waldorf-Astoria hotel chain. Bringing these two nationally known hospitality giants to the Canyons Resort speaks volumes about their confidence and where they see the future of the resort.

The Promontory golf club and home development is going through some rough times. Promontory opened up its second signature golf course last summer, a Jack Nicholas-designed championship course, but its two major creditors, Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo bank have forced the developer into a chapter 11 restructuring situation. It is felt that Promontory will emerge from this, be back in business, but most likely with a new owner and management team. In the meantime construction on their third championship golf course is on hold.

The Tuhaye golf course and community was quite active this winter in both lot sales and homes. Tuhaye has benefited from being a part of a unique club concept called the Talisker Club. The Talisker Club has combined golf amenities with ski amenities at Deer Valley, fishing, boating, and horseback riding. This club concept is the first of its kind which allows members the luxury of year-round activities, whereas clubs that have amenities just on a ski area or golf course only provide activities for a small part of the year. This is a very successful idea and from the number of inquiries I received last winter, it has been well received.

There is nothing that Park City loves more than real estate gossip. And the latest news here is that Jim Lewis has sold his company, Lewis, Wolcott & Dornbush Real Estate and the new owner has joined us with Sotheby’s International. Our new name is Summit Sotheby’s International Realty. While this of course does not change me or my relationship with any of my clients, it does bring the power of the Sotheby’s name to our marketing. The Sotheby’s International connections should bring quite a lot of marketing power and exposure to my sellers’ properties that LWD as an independent company could never afford to do. Combine the Sotheby’s name, direct flights from Paris to Salt Lake on Delta, a very favorable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, I am anticipating an increase in foreign visitors and buyers, particularly from western Europe.

As we slowly move towards summer, it seems like winter will not let go. We are cautiously optimistic for real estate sales this summer and we have seen a flurry of activity this spring. We are all hoping that the economy rights itself and consumer confidence once again reemerges. In the meantime owners of property here in Park City are enjoying the use of their home or condo, both during the ski season as well as during the summer months.