Consumer outlook up, housing bottom may be near

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

NEW YORK -Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested that a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9, up from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006, and is ahead of the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January — but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.
"It's still too early to call a bottom" on both confidence and housing, said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.
Sales of new homes rose in July, but still fell short of economists' expectations, and home prices continued to sink. Still, the July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.
"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. However, "overall readings are still quite low by historical standards, and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
Economists and investors closely monitor consumer sentiment as consumer spending represents about two-thirds of all economic activity.
Falling gas prices in recent weeks helped boost consumers' mood, Franco said. Gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations nationwide, released Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.70 on Friday.
Despite that, gas nationally was almost 95 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, and the volatility in oil prices are a big concern for investors. But Tuesday's reports helped offset a spike in oil prices that rose out of concerns Hurricane Gustav might hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.86, or 0.05 percent, to 11,392.11.
The Conference Board's index that measures shoppers' current assessment of the economy declined to 63.2 from 65.8 in July. But the one that gauges their outlook over the next six months jumped to 52.8 from 42.7 in July. The 10-point increase marked the biggest gain since November 2005, when the economic fallout of hurricane Katrina was subsiding.
Franco said that declines in the Present Situation Index, both in term of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating.
While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.
"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report showed that 14 cities in the monthly index showed improvement from May to June, but nine recorded positive returns. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units, the most since April. But sales in June had dropped to a pace of just 503,000 — down from previous estimates of 530,000 — to mark the worst performance since September 1991.
Economists projected sales to drop in July, but expected the pace to be around 525,000. Given June's sharp downward revision, the level of home sales in July wound up to be less than analysts were anticipating.
The Consumer Confidence report — derived from responses received through Aug. 19 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed people's current assessment of the labor market turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.0 percent from 30.2 percent in July, while those who found them "plentiful" declined to 13.1 percent from 13.6 percent. Their outlook for what's ahead in the labor market was less gloomy. The percent anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent.
—
AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa in Washington and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
2008-08-26 13:37:48

National and Local Real Estate News

Real estate continues to be at the forefront of both national and local news. On the positive side, the National Association of Realtors reported that housing sales rose by 6% for the month of July. This is the third straight month that housing sales have increased. The down side is that the average sales price of a home continues to decrease and is about 6% lower this year than at the same time in 2007. What this indicates to me is that buyers are out there buying, but are looking for deals and, in many markets it is mostly foreclosures or short sales that are selling. On this thought, I saw a very interesting video clip from Good Morning America radio interviewing Donald Trump and his thoughts on real estate. Click on the link below to go to this video clip:

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5576708

Whether you like or dislike Donald Trump, he should be respected for his real estate savvy, and he feels that now is the best time to buy. He goes on to say that he has not seen better opportunities to purchase real estate for at least 20 years. I feel that same way here in Park City in that there are more opportunities to pick up a “deal” than I have seen for many, many years. It appears that I am not alone with this thought as we are definitely seeing an increase in activity. I attribute this increase to buyers feeling that we may be close enough to the bottom of the market that now is a good time to buy and that while we are approaching winter, we are still far enough out that sellers are still negotiating. History has taught me that the closer we get to the opening of the ski resorts, the less flexible sellers become.

As I mentioned in last weeks blog, this past weekend was the Deer Valley Jazz Festival, and what a weekend it was. Perfect late summer mountain weather and fabulous music made for a memorable weekend. Everyone I talked to felt that if this was not The Best Festival, it was certainly right up there. It’s hard to believe that next weekend is Labor Day weekend, but fall is definitely in the air here. The nights have cooled off dramatically, with the occasional frost. I expect to see the first leaves changing in a week or so. With the arrival of fall, excitement starts building for the upcoming ski season and the resorts scramble to get all of their summer projects completed. Stay tuned for future articles detailing the improvements that each of the resorts has made for the ski season…

Jazz Fest

This weekend is the annual Jazz Festival at Deer Valley. (http://www.parkcityjazz.org/) The headline acts for this year’s festival are Blues Traveler, Big Bad Vodoo Daddy and the Rippingtons. This three day event runs Friday through Sunday at the amphitheatre in Deer Valley. Also performing at the festival will be the Park City High School Jazz Band. The Park City High School Jazz Band is quite well know and has won numerous awards throughout the state and the country. The outdoor amphitheatre in Deer Valley is a terrific venue for concerts, located at the base of the resort with excellent views of the local mountains. As you can see from the headline acts, the festival is not a pure jazz festival, but a combination of jazz and blues. If you are an aficionado of jazz or blues, this annual event should be on your calendar of must “to dos”.

The various golf course communities around the Park City area continue to flourish. Last weekend I was fortunate enough to have an opportunity to play at the Glenwild Golf Course, designed by Tom Fazio. The Glenwild course is an 18-hole championship course, set in a beautiful valley just to the north of Park City, with spectacular views of the Wasatch Range. The clubhouse at Glenwild is arguably the most beautiful of all the clubhouses around the area, with outdoor dining overlooking the golf course with views of all three Park City ski resorts. While Glenwild does offer a pool and tennis courts, the emphasis is certainly on the golf. Our Glenwild is a small community which is just about completely sold out, offering only re-sale lots and custom homes.

Last week I was at the Promontory Golf Course showing homes to a prospective buyer. Promontory has two golf courses, a Pete Dye Championship Course and the newly completed Jack Nicklaus Signature Course. I have not had the opportunity to play the Nicklaus Course yet, but word has it that is probably the best course in the state. Promontory differs from Glenwild in that, while golf is certainly the major attraction, it is not their only focus. Promontory has a wonderful spa/clubhouse with an indoor/outdoor pool adjoining a Children’s Center and a Members Clubhouse. Promontory also features an equestrian center, tennis courts and many miles of hiking/biking trails. Come winter the center court of the tennis facility converts to an ice skating rink and the hiking/biking trails convert to cross country ski trails. Promontory has made a conscious effort to offer recreational activities for the entire family. Promontory expects to start its third course this next summer which will be an Executive Course.

Tuhaye, one of the newest courses in town, features a Mark O’Meara Signature Course and is situated just to the east of Park City. Along with the golf pro shop, Tuhaye has completed it spa and fitness center with an outdoor pool and poolside café. This past Sunday I was fortunate enough to spend the afternoon at the Tuhaye pool overlooking the golf course with views up to Deer Valley. We decided that the views from the Tuhaye pool are the best of the three resort spas. Next in works for Tuhaye will be the Members Clubhouse and a 9-hole Executive Course. Tuhaye also has plans for an 18-hole Fazio Championship Course.

Just under way in the neighboring town of Heber is a new golf course community called Red Ledges. Red Ledges is also featuring a Nicklaus Signature Course and offers incredible views of Mt. Timpanogos. The course is well under way and at least 9 holes should be open by next summer. Currently Red Ledges is selling home sites and will soon be offering patio homes for sale as well.

As with many ski resort towns, Park City is going through a change from strictly a ski town to a Four-Seasons Resort and Golf Mecca. If you are a golf enthusiast, high altitude golf is extremely enjoyable as the thinner air allows us to feel like John Daly. The local courses should be open well into October so make plans to come out and visit us and enjoy the beautiful fall weather.

An interesting article...

Editor’s Note: The following information is compiled from a White Paper recently released by the author. The White Paper is titled, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about Housing Market” and can be accessed by clicking here.
RISMedia, Aug. 14, 2008 - When it comes to the national housing market, there is a lot of gloom and doom in the daily newspaper. Just look at a few recent headlines:
“Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble” - USA Today, 7/16/08“Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips” - New York Times, 7/27/2008“Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall” - The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/2008
“Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper everyday.” - Phil Gramm, top economic advisor to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Lost amid the uproar caused by Gramm’s proclamation that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” was a breath of economic fresh air to Realtors nationwide.
The economic recession that the United States is facing has been portrayed in the media as being brought about by the rising cost of oil and the “burst bubble” in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil continues to stand at near record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?
A recent report contributed to RISMedia, “Why 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” simply states “no.”
While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
“You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession,” said Gramm on July 9.
According to statistics from City-Data.com, 54 of the 101 cities with the largest population increase from 2000 - 2006 are located inside California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona - the four states most affected by decreasing home values.
As the populations in these areas have settled, home starts continued…and speculation caused a rapid rise in home values. Now, there is an enormous real estate surplus, and those same four states are witnessing an economic period of leveling out.
Just because four states are still falling, and 11 other states continue to try and stabilize doesn’t mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge. According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company’s “Economic & Real Estate Trends” report for Summer 2008, almost 68% of the nation’s 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter when Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI’s calculations.
For nearly 63% of Americans, the worst of the “housing crisis” seems to be over. As recently as late July, while economists were still not ready to call a bottom, positive signs began to show for home sales and home values.
To access the complete White Paper, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” click here.
John Benson is a real estate analyst who helped lay the groundwork for many startups across the Mid-Atlantic, and now works with Realtors in the region as a new media and marketing consultant. He welcomes your questions and comments. Contact him via e-mail: jbenson304@gmail.com.
RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.

Real Estate Update

The summer months are busy times for developers in the Park City area. This is the time of the year to get developments going and closed in before the winter snows arrive. There are several new developments of interest this year.

Saint Regis in Deer Crest at Deer Valley is showing good progress with about 7 of the 11 stories completed. Saint Regis is a high-end ski-in, ski-out hotel located directly on the ski runs of Deer Valley. As of today, the Saint Regis is about 50% sold out with prices ranging from about $1,800 – $2,000 per square foot. The first 7 floors are hotel units which will come fully furnished and owners are required to put those in the Saint Regis rental pool. Floors 8-10 will be apartments where owner’s will pick and design their own furnishings and there is no requirement for rentals. The entire 11th floor was purchased by one individual for his personal and corporate use. Along with direct ski-in, ski out access, the Saint Regis will feature a slope side ski-to pool and all of the spa amenities Saint Regis is so famous for.

Another resort hotel in Upper Dear Valley next to Empire Lodge is the Montage. The Montage is a very high-end boutique hotel which will feature a 30,000 square foot spa area. Currently the Montage is operating a hotel in Laguna Beach, California and has another hotel under construction in Malibu, California, as well as the one in Deer Valley. No units or floor plans have been released yet, but we are anticipating a release of the first phase later this fall or early winter. We expect that prices for these units will be in the $2,500 per square foot range. The Montage is located at the base of the Empire Pass Lift and is in the heart of the best skiing in Deer Valley. This is a project to keep an eye on as early investors should do well.

Other developments at Empire Pass include Red Cloud, which is a 30 lot subdivision at the top of the Northside and Red Cloud lifts. There are currently 4 homes under construction of which one is a spec home that will be offered for sale this winter. In the Village at Empire Pass the new Flagstaff condominium building is well under construction and is about 25% sold out. At the Talisker Tower, which is a members-only Club House (featuring a lounge, weight room, outdoor pool and spa) they are completing the plans for about 20 luxurious condominiums. All of the residences at the Village at Empire Pass offer direct ski-in, ski-out access to the Silver Strike Lift and membership in the Talisker Club, which includes both the on-mountain amenities as well as the golf course at Tuhaye.

At the base of the Park City Resort, the Silver Star project is nearing completion. Silver Star offers condominium apartments, townhouses and single family homes all with direct ski access from a new lift put in specifically for Silver Star. Silver Star is located on an old mining site and the developers were careful to retain not only the mining flavor but also to restore many of the old mine buildings. Several of the restored mine buildings will be used as an Artist Colony and will become the headquarters for the Sundance Film Festival. An interesting feature at Silver Star is an old mine tunnel that in the early days of Park City Resort was used to transport skiers to the upper lifts of the mountain. To do this, skiers got on an old mine train, went through the mountain and then took a hoist up to the base of what is now the Thaynes Lift. Silver Star will be restoring parts of this and using it as a museum.

At the base of the existing resort center is a new development called the Lowell. The owner’s of the Lowell purchased an existing condominium building, gutted it and have replaced it with about a dozen very contemporary condos. This is the first new development at the Resort Center in many years, and has been well received. There are only six units left.

At The Canyons Resort the big news is that Talisker Corporation, who is the developer of the new Empire Pass Area at Deer Valley as well as the Tuhaye Golf Course just outside of town, has closed on the purchase of the resort. While Talisker is still putting together their plans for development, we expect that the first improvements we will see will be in snowmaking and food service. Both of these areas were in dire need of improvement and unfortunately the previous owner, American Ski Corp. was in financial trouble and just did not have the means to develop the resort to its true potential. There are several new condominium developments under construction both at the base of the resort and further down valley. A new access lift is currently under construction to access these new developments.

The Colony, which is a very high-end ski-in, ski-out residential development is also in the process of installing a new access lift to enable skiers to return from the southernmost part of the resort back to the main area quickly and directly. The Colony is a spectacular home site development offering home sites of 5–100 acres. Covered with aspen forest and spectacular panoramic views, The Colony is probably the most beautiful of the residential developments in this area.

As you can see, Park City/Deer Valley continues to develop new properties with buyers from around the country purchasing many of the developments before they are completed. If it has been a while since you have visited Park City/Deer Valley, or have never looked at it from a real estate perspective, summer is a terrific time to look around and see what all the activity is about.