Big news in Park City this week is that President Bush is coming into town Wednesday and Thursday on a fund-raising trip for the Republican Party. President Bush will be staying at the home of Mitt Romney in Lower Deer Valley. I’ve heard that there will be at least one protest rally here in town, so it should be an interesting couple of days.
The Memorial Day holiday has come and gone, which for everywhere except for the mountains, is the start of the summer season. Not untypical, it rained and snowed all weekend here. Snowbird Ski Resort is still open on weekends and last Friday skiers were enjoying 17 inches of new snow in mid-winter conditions. Snowbird still has a base of 116” at mid-mountain. My guess is that in the high country the snow will not completely go away before the start of the next season.
In talking with my fellow Realtors in the other Rocky Mountain Resorts everyone feels that there is a disconnect between buyers and sellers. As I have mentioned in the past, many of our buyers are coming from markets that have been strongly affected by either the real estate or economic downturn and are expecting that the western ski resorts are in the same position. In the majority of the cases, however, our sellers are not in an anxious position, do not need to sell, and can afford to hold onto their properties until prices climb again. The unfortunate part of all of this is that buyers are not getting the properties that they want even though, by comparison, today’s prices are bargains. What I am afraid is going to happen is that in the not-too-distant future the market is going to rebound (we are already seeing signs of that), and today’s prices will be a thing of the past. A great quote is, “Quality of time remaining.” Meaning, how much is your time worth to have the property that you want now and enjoying it with your family? Unless the purchase is strictly for an investment it is important to understand that the time spent with our families spending quality time together does have a monetary value and should not be overlooked.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Powder Day in Park City!
It's Memorial Day weekend here in Park City and it is snowing hard. The forecast is for over 2 feet and the skiing is excellent!
This is a photo we just took of the outdoor dining patio at Silver Lake Lodge.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Calm before the storm
Summer, at least temporarily, has arrived in Park City. What a beautiful weekend! Temperatures in the 70s, golf course opened, barbecues going, and everyone taking advantage of the outdoors. However, as is all too typical for this time of year, snow is forecast starting Tuesday night through the weekend. As we get later in the spring the time between snowstorms gets longer and the weather is nicer. If this is a typical spring, we still have another three to four weeks that it can snow. It rarely snows after the middle of June.
As far as real estate goes in the Park City area, we are just beginning to see early signs of the market recovering. Buyers that have been looking throughout the winter are coming back to town and are writing contracts on properties. Additionally, the national economic news seems to be improving as well. There are signs that the economy is beginning to improve and more articles are appearing that we have not gone into a recession and probably will not. In talking with my fellow realtors from the other resorts, I am hearing that one of the reasons for the drop-off in number of offers having been written for the first quarter of this year can be attributed to the different expectations of buyers and sellers. With all the headline “doom and gloom” real estate news, and the factual downturn in the real estate market in areas like Florida, California, and Nevada, a growing percentage of buyers come into town expecting sellers to accept offers 30-40% off of their asking price. Here in Park City, as well as many of the other resorts, listing agents have always made an effort to counsel their sellers to put a price on their property that is realistic and within the expectations of whatever the current market is. We as agents find no value in letting our sellers list their properties at 20-40% over what they will take. We definitely advise our sellers that while they do need to leave a little room for negotiations, they need to price the property realistically and close to what they will accept. As a consequence, while buyers are frequently making offers substantially below asking price, the sellers feel that their price is fair, realistic, and they are not willing to accept offers that are significantly lower.
Because the market is significantly slower than it has been, we as agents are recommending to our sellers that they price their property aggressively, and at a point that it will actually sell. As a result, there are many excellent buys for the savvy investor. On a fairly regular basis, I see new listings come on at very favorable prices or older listings have a price reduction to make them favorable. For the smart investor who has cash, and can move quickly, there is an opportunity to make a lot of money in today’s market. This is not a market for the flipper who is looking to purchase a property, maybe make a few minor repairs and put it back on the market for a significant profit. Today’s market is such that a buyer who has staying power and can hold onto a property for a few years has an opportunity to see strong appreciation and a significant return on their investment. As with all of life, when looked at intelligently, a downturn in the real estate market can lead to an upside. A real estate investor from Florida that I spoke with yesterday mentioned that he was selling several condos to a cash buyer at deeply discounted prices. He mentioned that he is always looking for bargains, at which point I asked why he was selling the condos at such a discounted rate. I asked him if at that price would it be attractive for him to purchase, to which he answered, of course. So my obvious next question was, why are you selling and not holding onto them? Which he agreed with me, and is now going to hold onto them. Right now there are excellent opportunities in the stock market, financial markets, and certainly in real estate. The smart investor knows that trying to predict the bottom of any market is impossible, but to buy when prices are low will always be wise and profitable.
As far as real estate goes in the Park City area, we are just beginning to see early signs of the market recovering. Buyers that have been looking throughout the winter are coming back to town and are writing contracts on properties. Additionally, the national economic news seems to be improving as well. There are signs that the economy is beginning to improve and more articles are appearing that we have not gone into a recession and probably will not. In talking with my fellow realtors from the other resorts, I am hearing that one of the reasons for the drop-off in number of offers having been written for the first quarter of this year can be attributed to the different expectations of buyers and sellers. With all the headline “doom and gloom” real estate news, and the factual downturn in the real estate market in areas like Florida, California, and Nevada, a growing percentage of buyers come into town expecting sellers to accept offers 30-40% off of their asking price. Here in Park City, as well as many of the other resorts, listing agents have always made an effort to counsel their sellers to put a price on their property that is realistic and within the expectations of whatever the current market is. We as agents find no value in letting our sellers list their properties at 20-40% over what they will take. We definitely advise our sellers that while they do need to leave a little room for negotiations, they need to price the property realistically and close to what they will accept. As a consequence, while buyers are frequently making offers substantially below asking price, the sellers feel that their price is fair, realistic, and they are not willing to accept offers that are significantly lower.
Because the market is significantly slower than it has been, we as agents are recommending to our sellers that they price their property aggressively, and at a point that it will actually sell. As a result, there are many excellent buys for the savvy investor. On a fairly regular basis, I see new listings come on at very favorable prices or older listings have a price reduction to make them favorable. For the smart investor who has cash, and can move quickly, there is an opportunity to make a lot of money in today’s market. This is not a market for the flipper who is looking to purchase a property, maybe make a few minor repairs and put it back on the market for a significant profit. Today’s market is such that a buyer who has staying power and can hold onto a property for a few years has an opportunity to see strong appreciation and a significant return on their investment. As with all of life, when looked at intelligently, a downturn in the real estate market can lead to an upside. A real estate investor from Florida that I spoke with yesterday mentioned that he was selling several condos to a cash buyer at deeply discounted prices. He mentioned that he is always looking for bargains, at which point I asked why he was selling the condos at such a discounted rate. I asked him if at that price would it be attractive for him to purchase, to which he answered, of course. So my obvious next question was, why are you selling and not holding onto them? Which he agreed with me, and is now going to hold onto them. Right now there are excellent opportunities in the stock market, financial markets, and certainly in real estate. The smart investor knows that trying to predict the bottom of any market is impossible, but to buy when prices are low will always be wise and profitable.
Monday, May 12, 2008
More Snow!
Spring in the Rocky Mountains is never predictable. This weekend was one of yardwork, planting, golfing and grilling. This morning, it had snowed again.
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Friday, May 9, 2008
Spring Market Update
Spring has arrived and the snow is (very) slowly giving way to green grass and warmer days. May is an excellent time to reflect on the past real estate season and the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Market Analysis
This past winter was one of the most interesting that I have seen in my 19 years of real estate. Record snowfall brought incredible ski conditions, a record number of visitors to town, and the fewest number of real estate sales in over 5 years. It’s not that visitors did not want to own real estate here, but the constant barrage of negative press made buyers nervous, cautious, and wanting to wait to see what’s going to happen. Comparing the ski season, December 1, April 30 of this year to last year, here are some numbers: Number of Transactions for Single Family Homes is down 45%, and 44% for condos. Interestingly enough, during the same period the average sales price of a home went up 46% and the average sales price of condos rose 22%. In looking at the other destination ski resorts throughout the Rockies, I see that the same trend has occurred at the other resorts. This tells me that people continue to want vacation property and that our prices are still perceived as a good value. Whistler, in British Columbia, is the only resort in the west which reported an increase in number of condo sales (up 8%) and a 100% increase in sold price. This is understandable as Whistler is reaping the benefits of the upcoming 2010 Winter Olympics and the favorable exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.
Some specific areas of interest here in Park City are:
Old Town (including the Park City resort):
Single Family Homes were down 47% in number of sales (8 this year compared to 15 last year) and the average sales price was down 20 % ($1,376,000 compared to $1,712,000).
Lower Deer Valley:
Single Family Homes were down 71% (2 compared to 7) but up 7% in average sales price ($2,375,000 compared to $2,218,000).
Upper Deer Valley (Silver Lake):
The number of sales were off 43% (4 compared to 7) and the average sales price was down 2% ($5,411,000 compared to $5,507,000).
All of the areas within the city limits:
The number of home sales was off 26% (34 compared to 60) and the average sold price was down 3% ($2,419,000 compared to $2,500,000). This small decrease in sold price is reflective of resort markets where sellers generally do not have to sell, have the means to wait out a slowdown, and thus are not willing to drop their prices significantly.
For condominium sales:
Old Town (including Park City resort):
The number of sales was down 26% (54 compared to 73), but the average sold price was up 38% ($1,130,000 compared to $818,000). This is in large part due to the new Silver Strike project which was completed this winter.
Lower Deer Valley condos:
Number of sales were down 28% (13 compared to 18), and up 1% in average sales price ($1,195,000 to $1,188,000).
Upper Deer Valley:
Even in number of sales (11 compared to 12 last year), but average sales price was up 20% ($2,660,000 compared to $2,216,000).
For all areas within the city limits:
Condo sales were down 40% (108 compared to 180) and average sales price was up 24% ($1,331,000 compared to $1,075,000).
I frequently attend national real estate meetings where I make a point of speaking with agents from around the country. From my conversations, it appears that the resort real estate market is holding much stronger than many of the residential markets. Agents from the metropolitan non-resort areas for the most part are describing markets where the number of sales are down even more significantly than ours and sold prices are also significantly down.
From visitors that I spoke with and showed around this past winter it is very clear that they still want to buy here, will buy here, but are just looking for an increase in their comfort level. We saw this in 2001 and 2002 where terrorist attacks and wars created uncertain times, where buyers were also nervous and cautious about purchasing. In 2004 and 2005, confidence level returned and there was a pent-up demand for vacation properties throughout the West. At that time, all of the resorts experienced a frenzy of buying where properties were selling as fast as they came on the market, often with multiple offers. While no one can say when, I expect we will see something similar in the next couple of years. In 2007, many buyers that I had been working with for some time said to me, “Why didn’t you make me buy in 2005?!” In the next three years I expect that I will be hearing similar statements and that people who purchased during this downturn will be feeling very smug.
News on New Developments
Empire Pass at Deer Valley is moving forward. Last summer the second Arrowleaf building in Empire Pass was completed with all but one unit sold prior to completion. The Silver Strike condominium building is well under way and is expected to be completed early this summer. Last summer, the new Flagstaff condominium building broke ground and should be completed for the 2009/2010 ski season. The ski-in/ski-out homesites being built by Christopher Homes are under construction with two of the 18 homes pre-selling prior to completion. In addition nine lots in Red Cloud at the top of the mountain were released this winter and there were two sales in the Red Cloud subdivision, both well over $4 million.
Montage is a new luxury resort spa hotel under construction at the base of the Empire lift at Deer Valley. Completion is expected for sometime during the 2010/2011 ski season and we expect the first relase of condominiums to be late this summer or early this winter. The Montage will feature a 30,000 square foot spa, restaurants, and lounges. While no specifics have been announced as far as prices, floorplans, or sizes of units, we are expecting the first release to come out between $2,200 and $2,500 per foot. The Montage will certainly have the premier location of any of the resort hotel spas in Deer Valley and Park City. Watch for further updates as information becomes available.
The St. Regis Hotel in Deer Crest at Deer Valley is steadily progressing and about 65% sold out. Two units just sold this past week. The St. Regis will feature a spectacular slopeside pool, deck, and lounge area with ski access from the Deer Hollow ski run. There are only 25 units left with completion expected in early summer 2009.
Silver Star is a new development at the base of the Park City Resort, is ski-in/ski-out, and is a combination of condominium apartments, townhouses, and single family homes. The project is about 70% completed and was completely sold out prior to breaking ground. In addition to the residential community in Silver Star the developers have painstakingly chosen to preserve the mining heritage and have converted many of the original mine buildings into an artist colony which will be the home of next year’s Sundance Film Festival.
The big news at The Canyons is that earlier this winter, American Ski Corporation, the owner, dissolved, paving the way for the sale of the resort. There was a fierce battle between Vail Resorts and Talisker Corporation for the resort. Talisker is the developer of Empire Pass at Deer Valley and the Tuhaye golf community just outside of town. After several heated court battles, the courts have ruled that Talisker’s offer to purchase was legitimate and above board. This has paved the way for Talisker to purchase the resort and it is expected that they will close on the purchase as early as the end of May 2008. This is very good news for the Canyons, as it will bring a much-needed infusion of money, and energy back to the resort. In anticipation of this purchase, we saw good activity in an area called The Colony, a ski-in/ski-out home development adjoining the Canyons where six lots sold and two homes, one being a home listed for over $14,000,000 sold. When Talikser has completed the purchase of the Canyons and the news is released, I expect that there will be a flurry of activity for lots and homes in the Colony as well as the new condominium developments at the base of the Canyons Resort.
Very exciting news at the Canyons is that a new condominium project called Dakota has aligned itself with Golden Door Spas and the Waldorf-Astoria hotel chain. Bringing these two nationally known hospitality giants to the Canyons Resort speaks volumes about their confidence and where they see the future of the resort.
The Promontory golf club and home development is going through some rough times. Promontory opened up its second signature golf course last summer, a Jack Nicholas-designed championship course, but its two major creditors, Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo bank have forced the developer into a chapter 11 restructuring situation. It is felt that Promontory will emerge from this, be back in business, but most likely with a new owner and management team. In the meantime construction on their third championship golf course is on hold.
The Tuhaye golf course and community was quite active this winter in both lot sales and homes. Tuhaye has benefited from being a part of a unique club concept called the Talisker Club. The Talisker Club has combined golf amenities with ski amenities at Deer Valley, fishing, boating, and horseback riding. This club concept is the first of its kind which allows members the luxury of year-round activities, whereas clubs that have amenities just on a ski area or golf course only provide activities for a small part of the year. This is a very successful idea and from the number of inquiries I received last winter, it has been well received.
There is nothing that Park City loves more than real estate gossip. And the latest news here is that Jim Lewis has sold his company, Lewis, Wolcott & Dornbush Real Estate and the new owner has joined us with Sotheby’s International. Our new name is Summit Sotheby’s International Realty. While this of course does not change me or my relationship with any of my clients, it does bring the power of the Sotheby’s name to our marketing. The Sotheby’s International connections should bring quite a lot of marketing power and exposure to my sellers’ properties that LWD as an independent company could never afford to do. Combine the Sotheby’s name, direct flights from Paris to Salt Lake on Delta, a very favorable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, I am anticipating an increase in foreign visitors and buyers, particularly from western Europe.
As we slowly move towards summer, it seems like winter will not let go. We are cautiously optimistic for real estate sales this summer and we have seen a flurry of activity this spring. We are all hoping that the economy rights itself and consumer confidence once again reemerges. In the meantime owners of property here in Park City are enjoying the use of their home or condo, both during the ski season as well as during the summer months.
Market Analysis
This past winter was one of the most interesting that I have seen in my 19 years of real estate. Record snowfall brought incredible ski conditions, a record number of visitors to town, and the fewest number of real estate sales in over 5 years. It’s not that visitors did not want to own real estate here, but the constant barrage of negative press made buyers nervous, cautious, and wanting to wait to see what’s going to happen. Comparing the ski season, December 1, April 30 of this year to last year, here are some numbers: Number of Transactions for Single Family Homes is down 45%, and 44% for condos. Interestingly enough, during the same period the average sales price of a home went up 46% and the average sales price of condos rose 22%. In looking at the other destination ski resorts throughout the Rockies, I see that the same trend has occurred at the other resorts. This tells me that people continue to want vacation property and that our prices are still perceived as a good value. Whistler, in British Columbia, is the only resort in the west which reported an increase in number of condo sales (up 8%) and a 100% increase in sold price. This is understandable as Whistler is reaping the benefits of the upcoming 2010 Winter Olympics and the favorable exchange rate between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.
Some specific areas of interest here in Park City are:
Old Town (including the Park City resort):
Single Family Homes were down 47% in number of sales (8 this year compared to 15 last year) and the average sales price was down 20 % ($1,376,000 compared to $1,712,000).
Lower Deer Valley:
Single Family Homes were down 71% (2 compared to 7) but up 7% in average sales price ($2,375,000 compared to $2,218,000).
Upper Deer Valley (Silver Lake):
The number of sales were off 43% (4 compared to 7) and the average sales price was down 2% ($5,411,000 compared to $5,507,000).
All of the areas within the city limits:
The number of home sales was off 26% (34 compared to 60) and the average sold price was down 3% ($2,419,000 compared to $2,500,000). This small decrease in sold price is reflective of resort markets where sellers generally do not have to sell, have the means to wait out a slowdown, and thus are not willing to drop their prices significantly.
For condominium sales:
Old Town (including Park City resort):
The number of sales was down 26% (54 compared to 73), but the average sold price was up 38% ($1,130,000 compared to $818,000). This is in large part due to the new Silver Strike project which was completed this winter.
Lower Deer Valley condos:
Number of sales were down 28% (13 compared to 18), and up 1% in average sales price ($1,195,000 to $1,188,000).
Upper Deer Valley:
Even in number of sales (11 compared to 12 last year), but average sales price was up 20% ($2,660,000 compared to $2,216,000).
For all areas within the city limits:
Condo sales were down 40% (108 compared to 180) and average sales price was up 24% ($1,331,000 compared to $1,075,000).
I frequently attend national real estate meetings where I make a point of speaking with agents from around the country. From my conversations, it appears that the resort real estate market is holding much stronger than many of the residential markets. Agents from the metropolitan non-resort areas for the most part are describing markets where the number of sales are down even more significantly than ours and sold prices are also significantly down.
From visitors that I spoke with and showed around this past winter it is very clear that they still want to buy here, will buy here, but are just looking for an increase in their comfort level. We saw this in 2001 and 2002 where terrorist attacks and wars created uncertain times, where buyers were also nervous and cautious about purchasing. In 2004 and 2005, confidence level returned and there was a pent-up demand for vacation properties throughout the West. At that time, all of the resorts experienced a frenzy of buying where properties were selling as fast as they came on the market, often with multiple offers. While no one can say when, I expect we will see something similar in the next couple of years. In 2007, many buyers that I had been working with for some time said to me, “Why didn’t you make me buy in 2005?!” In the next three years I expect that I will be hearing similar statements and that people who purchased during this downturn will be feeling very smug.
News on New Developments
Empire Pass at Deer Valley is moving forward. Last summer the second Arrowleaf building in Empire Pass was completed with all but one unit sold prior to completion. The Silver Strike condominium building is well under way and is expected to be completed early this summer. Last summer, the new Flagstaff condominium building broke ground and should be completed for the 2009/2010 ski season. The ski-in/ski-out homesites being built by Christopher Homes are under construction with two of the 18 homes pre-selling prior to completion. In addition nine lots in Red Cloud at the top of the mountain were released this winter and there were two sales in the Red Cloud subdivision, both well over $4 million.
Montage is a new luxury resort spa hotel under construction at the base of the Empire lift at Deer Valley. Completion is expected for sometime during the 2010/2011 ski season and we expect the first relase of condominiums to be late this summer or early this winter. The Montage will feature a 30,000 square foot spa, restaurants, and lounges. While no specifics have been announced as far as prices, floorplans, or sizes of units, we are expecting the first release to come out between $2,200 and $2,500 per foot. The Montage will certainly have the premier location of any of the resort hotel spas in Deer Valley and Park City. Watch for further updates as information becomes available.
The St. Regis Hotel in Deer Crest at Deer Valley is steadily progressing and about 65% sold out. Two units just sold this past week. The St. Regis will feature a spectacular slopeside pool, deck, and lounge area with ski access from the Deer Hollow ski run. There are only 25 units left with completion expected in early summer 2009.
Silver Star is a new development at the base of the Park City Resort, is ski-in/ski-out, and is a combination of condominium apartments, townhouses, and single family homes. The project is about 70% completed and was completely sold out prior to breaking ground. In addition to the residential community in Silver Star the developers have painstakingly chosen to preserve the mining heritage and have converted many of the original mine buildings into an artist colony which will be the home of next year’s Sundance Film Festival.
The big news at The Canyons is that earlier this winter, American Ski Corporation, the owner, dissolved, paving the way for the sale of the resort. There was a fierce battle between Vail Resorts and Talisker Corporation for the resort. Talisker is the developer of Empire Pass at Deer Valley and the Tuhaye golf community just outside of town. After several heated court battles, the courts have ruled that Talisker’s offer to purchase was legitimate and above board. This has paved the way for Talisker to purchase the resort and it is expected that they will close on the purchase as early as the end of May 2008. This is very good news for the Canyons, as it will bring a much-needed infusion of money, and energy back to the resort. In anticipation of this purchase, we saw good activity in an area called The Colony, a ski-in/ski-out home development adjoining the Canyons where six lots sold and two homes, one being a home listed for over $14,000,000 sold. When Talikser has completed the purchase of the Canyons and the news is released, I expect that there will be a flurry of activity for lots and homes in the Colony as well as the new condominium developments at the base of the Canyons Resort.
Very exciting news at the Canyons is that a new condominium project called Dakota has aligned itself with Golden Door Spas and the Waldorf-Astoria hotel chain. Bringing these two nationally known hospitality giants to the Canyons Resort speaks volumes about their confidence and where they see the future of the resort.
The Promontory golf club and home development is going through some rough times. Promontory opened up its second signature golf course last summer, a Jack Nicholas-designed championship course, but its two major creditors, Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo bank have forced the developer into a chapter 11 restructuring situation. It is felt that Promontory will emerge from this, be back in business, but most likely with a new owner and management team. In the meantime construction on their third championship golf course is on hold.
The Tuhaye golf course and community was quite active this winter in both lot sales and homes. Tuhaye has benefited from being a part of a unique club concept called the Talisker Club. The Talisker Club has combined golf amenities with ski amenities at Deer Valley, fishing, boating, and horseback riding. This club concept is the first of its kind which allows members the luxury of year-round activities, whereas clubs that have amenities just on a ski area or golf course only provide activities for a small part of the year. This is a very successful idea and from the number of inquiries I received last winter, it has been well received.
There is nothing that Park City loves more than real estate gossip. And the latest news here is that Jim Lewis has sold his company, Lewis, Wolcott & Dornbush Real Estate and the new owner has joined us with Sotheby’s International. Our new name is Summit Sotheby’s International Realty. While this of course does not change me or my relationship with any of my clients, it does bring the power of the Sotheby’s name to our marketing. The Sotheby’s International connections should bring quite a lot of marketing power and exposure to my sellers’ properties that LWD as an independent company could never afford to do. Combine the Sotheby’s name, direct flights from Paris to Salt Lake on Delta, a very favorable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, I am anticipating an increase in foreign visitors and buyers, particularly from western Europe.
As we slowly move towards summer, it seems like winter will not let go. We are cautiously optimistic for real estate sales this summer and we have seen a flurry of activity this spring. We are all hoping that the economy rights itself and consumer confidence once again reemerges. In the meantime owners of property here in Park City are enjoying the use of their home or condo, both during the ski season as well as during the summer months.
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