Thursday, June 25, 2009

Western Mountain Resorts

This past week I hosted a conference for real estate agents of the western ski resort communities in Jackson Hole Wyoming. We had representatives from Sun Valley, Idaho, McCall, Idaho, Park City, Utah, Vail, Colorado, Breckenridge, Colorado, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, Winter Park, Colorado, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and Lake Tahoe, California. As president of the Western Mountain Resort Alliance my job among others was to moderate a panel discussion of all the resorts. Questions were asked of each representative about their current real estate markets, sales activity, prices, activity on new developments, and sales activity in their golf course communities.

While there were some striking differences between the resorts, the overall market activity was very similar. All of the resorts reported that sales numbers and dollar volume was down around 45-50% comparing this past ski season to the previous ski season. The big differences were apparent in average price and price per square foot in homes and condos sold. Vail grabbed everyone’s attention with new slope side condominium development’s selling for up to $2900 per square foot while Winter Park, CO said their new slope side development’s are selling for around $500 per square foot. Park City falls somewhere in the middle with new slope side development’s selling around a $1000 per square foot. However, Park City does show a penthouse condo in the Empire Pass area of Deer Valley under contract/pending at $1900 per square foot.

McCall, ID, home of Tamarack ski resort, reported that their prices have dropped low enough that nearly every property sold is receiving multiple offers. Several of the other resorts, particularly Breckenridge, are also experiencing a return of multiple offers being written for exceptional properties. Pretty much every resort is experiencing signs that the real estate market is turning for the better.

Near unanimous were the resorts reporting that home sales under $1.5 million and condo sales under $700,000 were the strongest parts of their market. Also unanimous was that vacant land sales were the weakest. The lack of land sales can be attributed to a lack of vacant land near the resorts and the unwillingness of lenders to make loans for undeveloped land.

We discussed at length how golf course communities were doing at each resort. Nearly unanimous was that vacant land and home sales in private golf course communities was extremely slow. Everyone felt that in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s too many golf course communities were developed and that there was just not enough demand for all the supply that came on the market. It appears to us that the resorts, in an effort to become a Four Seasons resort rather than just a winter resort, developed too many golf course communities. For instance, in the Vail area which encompasses an area from the Vail valley and continues west along I70 for about 70 miles there are now 13 golf courses and many of those are real estate communities also. That number got everyone’s attention until Park City announced that we now have 14 golf course communities in and around the immediate area. Jackson Hole only has 5 golf course communities. North Lake Tahoe has 4 golf course communities, all put in many years ago and now North Lake Tahoe is enforcing a moratorium on any new golf course communities. As a result the North Lake Tahoe communities have sold out of all developer product and re-sales are fairly strong. Perhaps the rest of the Western Resorts should pay attention to this lesson.

In final comments almost all of the representatives were optimistic that the increased activity we have seen in the last couple months will continue through the summer months and in to next year.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Has Summer Arrived?

After 4 weeks of rain every single day, the sun came out this afternoon. Could this really be the start of summer? While the calendar tells us summer starts this weekend you never really know living in the mountains. But based on the calendar Park City begins the summer season this Friday. We will be kicking off the summer with a dinner and Jazz Festival on Main Street Friday night. This is knows as “Savor the Summit” where we close Main Street to traffic and put tables end to end from the top of Main to the bottom of Main. Our local restaurants all participate with a special menu to serve. And several Jazz bands will be performing along Main Street while people dine. This is a great event and really gets everyone going!

Next week on Wednesday the free concerts begin at Deer Valley Resort. These occur every Wednesday through August and have become the social event of the week. Everyone gets lawn seating, brings their favorite beverage, dinner and music is def secondary to the party.

In real estate happenings May was a very strong month for sales (considering the economy) with the number of contracts written surpassing July, 2008. This was really good news and hopefully a start to a solid recovery of our real estate market. June typically begins the home selling season as most people prefer to wait until school is out to move their families. Right now buyers have an excellent selection of homes to choose from in all price ranges and when combined with the historically low interest rates, I am optimistic that the home buying season will be good. Historically resort condo sales do not pick up again until about August, when the approaching ski season rekindles interest. We should start to see interest in golf course property now that summer has arrived and with the competition among all of the golf course communities there are some opportunities that we may not see again for a long time (more on the golf courses next week).

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Rain Rain Go Away

This has been the wettest June on record, 10 out of 11 days this month have seen rain. On the positive side, I have never seen the mountains so green and lush, the reservoirs are full and the fire danger is extremely low. This all bodes well for the upcoming hot months of July and August. Fortunately, the snow level has been above 10,000 feet so we have not had to deal with snow.

In real estate news, the market turn around that I first noticed in March, continued through April and really picked up some steam in May. Beginning last September we experienced a steadily declining number of sales here in Park City. March saw the first significant increase in both closed sales and the number of pending contracts written. As an example: in February 2009 the Park City Board reported 42 pended transactions. In March that number jumped to 70, increased again in April to 83, and in May the Park City Board reported 98 pended contracts. The same held true for closed transactions. In February there were 50 closed transactions, in March there were 63, April saw 60 closed transactions, and May jumped up to 73 closed transactions. This is particularly interesting because April and May tend to be very slow months with fewer sales than the traditional busy ski season months (December-March).

What does this mean? Anybody’s guess at this point. Is this a beginning to the recovery? Or is it just a false spike brought on by low prices and low interest rates? Only time will tell at this point, but here in Park City we are experiencing more optimism then we have for quite some time.
This Sunday the “Park Silly” market held on lower Main Street begins its summer season. This is an eco-friendly market featuring artists, crafts, music, locally grown produce and food booths from local chefs. There is always a lot of fun energy and it is a great way to end your week. Don’t worry, the sun will come out and it will warm up so plan a vacation to Park City and experience summertime in the mountains.

Friday, June 5, 2009

New Developments

The weather this first week of June is cool and rainy with a forecast of snow for this weekend, which is pretty typical this time of year. However, the last two weeks of June are historically the driest two weeks of the year, so we eagerly await the expected precipitation this weekend.
The past year has seen a flurry of activity at the ski resorts with new condominium project developments. In the Empire Pass area of Deer Valley a new condominium project called Flagstaff is well under way with an expected completion date of late fall /early winter 2009. Flagstaff offers 3 and 4 bedroom condos with direct ski in/out access and ranges in price from $3,300,000 for a 3 bedroom to $6,000,000 for a 4 bedroom penthouse unit. Flagstaff is a part of The Talisker Club which offers a “members only” lounge on the mountain at Deer Valley Resort as well as access to the Mark O’Meara designed Tuhaye golf course which includes a clubhouse with a restaurant, spa and pool.

At The Canyons Resort several new condo projects are under construction or nearing completion also. Most noteworthy is The Dakota Mountain Lodge which features the Golden Door Spa which will be managed by the Waldorf-Astoria chain. With Talisker Corporation (the developer of Tuhaye Golf Course and the Empire Pass developments at Deer Valley) recently taking ownership at The Canyons resort and the addition of the Golden Door Spa and Waldorf-Astoria, it appears that The Canyons Resort will rightfully claim a spot as our 3rd world class destination resort.

In addition to Dakota Mountain Lodge other new projects at The Canyons are Sunrise @ Escala which features 1-2 bedroom condos starting at $695,000 and Juniper Landing which features 2-3 bedroom condos starting at $825,000. These condominium developments are all located in a new village just below the base area of the resort and will be connected to the ski area with a new chairlift that will be under construction this summer. Also planned for this development is a resort golf course that will wind among the condominium developments.

Park City is continuing to grow and prosper and this would be a terrific summer to come out and see what is new here to get a feel for where we are heading. It will not be long before the resorts are completely built out and the only properties available will be re-sale properties.