Split Jet Stream, Skiers' Woe

It is not uncommon in fall/early winter for a split jet stream to set up over the interior west. What occurs is that a strong and dominant high-pressure system takes hold of the western US. Low-pressure systems originating in the Gulf of Alaska typically move southward along the coast of British Columbia and swing inland anywhere between Northern California and Washington, sweeping over Utah and providing our famously fluffy powder snow. However when a high-pressure system sets up over the west as it is currently, as these low-pressure systems start to move inland they encounter the high-pressure and split apart. With one part going north over the top of the high-pressure and another section swinging south under the high-pressure leaving Utah warm and dry. This is the pattern that we are currently in. But the high pressure is just far enough to the west that the northern branch of the jet stream does clip Utah bringing us occasional light snowfall. This is what is going to happen this Wednesday and Thursday with probably not more than 3-4 inches of snow for the northern Utah resorts while the central and southern Utah mountains could see several feet.HMMM, Could we possibly switch this pattern for May, when it snows continuously and we want sunshine?

On a brighter note, Deer Valley opens this Saturday and conditions should be pretty decent for opening day. I haven't heard what is going to be open yet but I would expect runs down Bald Mountain, Flagstaff and Northside should be open. The Stein Eriksen Lodge, located on the mountain in Silver Lake, Deer Valley, has received the Forbes 5-Star rating for its spa. This is the only 5-star rating for a spa in the state of Utah and only one of 4 throughout the country. This is quite a feather in the cap for Stein's, as it completely redid its spa two years ago and has made great efforts to bring up the level of service.

Last week I spoke of The Montage Hotel here in Deer Valley. This week I'd like to talk about one of Deer Valley's other great hotels, The St. Regis. The St. Regis Hotel, located in the Deer Crest area of Deer Valley overlooking both the town of Park City and the Jordanelle Reservoir is truly one of the luxury hotels here in town. The St. Regis first started selling units in 2005, prior to completion of the hotel, The hotel was substantially completed in December of 2009 and at that time was about 60% sold. Even during the downturn of the economy the majority of owners who purchased during the pre-construction phase ended up closing on their units, and this year there have been four new sales in the St. Regis. There are only ten units available for sale, a one-bedroom listed for $1,370,000, two-bedrooms listed around $1,500,000, and three-bedrooms listed anywhere from $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 depending on location and views. The hotel has the space, feel, and services that you'd expect from the St. Regis and certainly lives up to its brand. The St. Regis features a wonderful heated patio overlooking the ski slopes of Deer Valley, which is a favorite gathering spot for lunch or early afternoon cocktails in the spring and Sunday afternoons throughout the summer.

To get to the St. Regis, guest ride a funicular--a European-style cog train--from lower Deer Valley to the terminal in the St. Regis. Riding down the funicular in the evening with the lights of Deer Valley sparkling is something all visitors to Park City should experience.

Ski season is here and going strong. I have been arduously working off my Thanksgiving dinner, as I hope you have. So plan your trip to Park City, come see me in my office at Silver Lake in mid-mountain Deer Valley and let's go skiing. In the meantime, do your snowdance, drink a glass of wine to the Snow Gods, or whatever else you feel works to bring on the snow!

We Are Skiing

This past weekend four more Utah resorts opened for skiing. Brian Head in central Utah, Alta and Snowbird in Little Cottonwood Canyon, and Park City Mountain Resort have all opened with very good conditions for the middle of November. We received about 6" of snow Friday night and snow has continued off and on all weekend and into today, Monday. This week, Thanksgiving week, Canyons Resort opens followed by Deer Valley the following weekend, December 3rd. With the early snow that we have been receiving and the resorts opening with very good conditions, the lodging companies are all reporting higher than normal bookings for the year. While in the past, management companies have all said that visitors are booking closer and closer to their actual vacation time to see who has the best snow and rates. This year with early snow throughout all of the Rockies, visitors are once again booking ahead and booking early to assure that they get the accommodations that they want.

Last week I was at a luncheon where we heard speakers from all three Park City resorts talking about what's new and what improvements the resorts have made over the summer months and also from White Pine Touring which operates the cross-country ski tracks around town. White Pine Touring also works closely with Mountain Trails Foundation which is a non-profit here in town dedicated to the building and maintenance of mountain biking and hiking trails throughout the mountains. Apparently the International Mountain Biking Association has named Park City as the best mountain biking town in the country. This is such a tribute to the Mountain Trails Foundation and the hard work that they do building and maintaining the Park City trail system.

On another note two weeks ago Park City, through our local radio station held a community wide call-in fundraiser for all of Park City's nonprofit organizations. I am very proud to say that our small town of Park City, permanent population of 7,000, contributed over $300,000 that day to our nonprofits. These non-profits are such an integral part of our community in maintaining hiking trails, putting on music festivals and contributing to the arts in town and this money will help assure their continued success. Way to go, Park City, and one of the things that I so much love about this town.

Last week I was up at the Montage Hotel at Empire Pass in Deer Valley and toured some of their new residences. They are absolutely stunning and the location of the Montage Hotel is in the "A" location for skiers. The Montage Hotel is located at the base of the Empire lift of Deer Valley with premium ski access to Deer Valley's most challenging expert terrain or the easy groomers of Northside. It is no wonder that The Montage has been a resounding success for both guests wishing to stay at the best Deer Valley has to offer or buyers wanting to own a condo in the heart of skiing.

Ski season is here so get your skis tuned up and waxed, and when you are out this winter, let me take you on a tour of Deer Valley and show you my favorite places to ski. Remember my office is mid-mountain Deer Valley in the Silver Lake Plaza, right across from the ticket booth.

Third Quarter Resort Comparisons

A very interesting observation as winter approaches North America is in watching reactions to forecasts of snow. When watching the news stations or weather channel I have noticed that when snow is forecast for most cities in North America or the US, it comes with a warning for travel and usually with advice for residents to avoid traveling outside and to stay at home. It does not seem to matter whether the forecast is for an inch of snow or several. Ski resort towns, on the other hand, not only do not panic with the forecast of snow, but instead celebrate it. The ski resorts in the western US really don't even take notice or start to get excited unless the forecast is for at least a foot. Then the excitement is not for concerns of traveling around town (we all know how to drive in snow) but rather the prospect of excellent skiing the next day. Just another example of how ski country people are just a little different from the rest of the country.

This past weekend we had a fairly decent storm with 8-10 inches of snow on the Park City side and between 1 and 2 feet in the Alta/Snowbird area. Unfortunately the combination of new snow and early season enthusiasm is a recipe for disaster. Over the weekend and mostly on Sunday, there were around a dozen skier/boarder-triggered avalanches in the Wasatch Range. And most unfortunately, pro-skier,  Jamie Pierre was killed in an avalanche at Snowbird Resort. Prior to the opening of the resorts--Snowbird and Alta don't open until this Friday--the resorts aren't doing avalanche control work and early season enthusiasts forget that while skiing at these resorts, one must take the same precautions as backcountry skiing. This is a lesson that is all too often learned too late.

The third quarter statistics for all of the resorts of the Western Mountain Resort Alliance have just come out and are pretty interesting. The statistics are for most of the major resorts in the western US: Whistler in British Columbia; Park City, Utah; Steamboat, Vail, and Crested Butte in Colorado; Sun Valley, Idaho; Big Sky, Montana; Lake Tahoe, California; and Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Pretty interesting that what I've been reporting for Park City all year is quite similar to what's happening at the other resorts. All year I've been reporting that the number of listings has been down (and for Park City it's down 6% over last year) and likewise, the other resorts are down anywhere from 2% in Whistler to 16% in Big Sky. Only Lake Tahoe is up at 6% and Jackson Hole is even from last year. Over this past year I've been saying the number of units sold has been up in Park City (which it has by 18%) and every resort except for Crested Butte is also showing number of sales up over last year. Vail is basically even, up only 1%. Big Sky, Montana has had the biggest increase at 40% in number of sales of last year, and Crested Butte is the anomaly down 45% in number of sales last year. I have been following these statistics since 1996 and pretty consistently, Vail has always sold about twice as much as we have in Park City. However last year and again this year, total dollar volume sold in Park City has surpassed Vail. Through September, Park City has sold just over $853,000,000 for a 7% increase over 2010. Vail, on the other hand, has sold just under $725,000,000, which is a 24% decrease over 2010. In looking at all of the resorts, four are up this year and five are down. Whistler, Park City, Steamboat and Big Sky are all showing increases in dollar volume over 2010. While Sun Valley, Vail, Lake Tahoe, Jackson and Crested Butte are all showing a decrease. Jackson Hole continues to have the highest average sales price of all resorts with the average sales price for all property types for the entire county of $1,225,000. By contrast, Vail, which we always assume is very expensive, is showing an average for all property types of $898,000 and Park City at $676,000. Jackson Hole has always been expensive because of the scarcity of developable land. Only 3% of all the land in and around Jackson is available for development. This is one of the big contrasts that we have here in Park City where one of our main issues is actually that there is too much land that can be developed. Please feel free to contact me for detailed or more specific information for any of these resorts.

The snow is piling up, the resorts are opening, Park City, Alta, and Snowbird open this weekend, so it's definitely time to find where your ski gear hid itself over the summer and get the ski legs in shape.

Snow, snow, snow

Last Saturday, Park City held a Snow Dance Parade on Main Street where everybody was encouraged to dress up in appropriate snow gear, ring cowbells and parade to bring on winter. Well, it worked! It's been snowing ever since, and all three resorts are making snow. Big news this week is the announcement of opening days. Brighton Ski Resort in Big Cottonwood Canyon opens this Thursday followed by Solitude on Friday. Park City, Snowbird and Alta are opening the following week on the 18th or 19th, Canyons on the 25th, and Deer Valley as is consistent, opens the first Saturday in December which is the 3rd this year. Fall has definitely ended and winter is here now for the duration.

The excitement in town is readily apparent with the ski shops getting all the new equipment out and everybody gearing up for a great winter. With last ski season showing a marked improvement in visitors to Park City over the 2009-2010 season, we are hoping the trend  will continue and with abundant snowfall visitors will come.

In real estate happenings, for the off-time of the year, we are remaining relatively busy. Buyers are continuing to take advantage of low prices and low interest rates to purchase their ski property prior to the arrival of winter visitors. I had some clients in town last week and their reasoning for coming this time of the year was the of the availability of properties to look at. With very few visitors in town right now getting appointments to see property is very easy, unlike during the height of the ski season when everything is rented. So if you are contemplating purchasing a ski property this year, this is a terrific time to come out and look. The availability is high and there is great selection of properties to look at.

The start of the ski season is just days away so continue working on your strength and agility exercises, and let's go skiing!

Park City Mountain Resort Goes Green

With all the talk over the last several years of global warming (or more correctly, climate change) and the concern that we have of ever-rising snow levels, the three Park City resorts have been taking steps to reduce and hopefully eliminate their carbon footprint. Several years ago both the Park City Mountain Resort and Deer Valley Resort purchased wind power electricity and converted their fleets of snow groomers to bio diesel. This year Park City has gone a step further and installed a wind turbine at the top of the mountain along with solar panels with the goal of becoming completely independent from conventional electricity and using only renewable sources. This is a great move and I believe we'll see more and more resorts going this direction.

Last week I talked about my Hero Tree in the backyard that stays green well after the other trees have turned golden. This last weekend it finally gave up and started to turn. I guess this means the end of fall has arrived. While there's still a few splotches of gold in the mountains the leaves are coming off pretty quickly and we're entering the brown season. The brown season is when all the leaves are gone but snow has not yet arrived. It looks like we're going to get another small shot of snow this week and with very cold temperatures. I was just in Deer Valley purchasing my season pass for the year and saw that they had the snowmaking guns out. This is a good opportunity to remind everyone that on November 1 season pass and coupon book rates increase at our local resorts.

Continuing as we have been all fall, there is nothing terribly exciting in real estate  happening. However the past week my phone's been ringing with inquiries for ski condos prior to the start of the ski season. Prices continue to be low and interest rates remain at historic lows and buyers are taking advantage of this. On the flip side, as I mentioned last week, the number of new properties listed are decreasing significantly which is making it harder to find steals. There are great deals out there but I would caution buyers that if they're looking and find something that fits their requirements not to dawdle.

Last weekend the new Warren Miller ski film, Like There's No Tomorrow, premiered here in Park City and now of course everybody is enthused and ready for the start of ski season. If this film comes to a town near to you I recommend seeing it as it's one of his better ones in the last several years. With that, I hope to see you on the mountain this winter!

My Hero

I know every week I talk about just how beautiful it is and how it can't get any prettier...but it does! This weekend was the peak of the colors and it's absolutely spectacular. The hills were awash in color, the temperature was near 70 and then we had a little snow last night. My hero this week is an aspen tree in my backyard. While all the other aspens have turned bright gold and are starting to lose their leaves there is one that holds on and is still bright green. Way to go, aspen. Don't give up!

In real estate news the sales stats are in through the end of September and the trend we have been observing all year is continuing. Comparing year-to-date January 1 to September 30 of 2010 and 2011, the number of single family homes sold is up just over 17% and the average sales price of a home has risen 4.5% from $826,000 to $863,000. Condo sales are up just over 13% and continuing the trend we've seen all summer, average sales price is down about 27%, from $862,000 in 2010 to $623,000 in 2011. Looking at and comparing this September to last September, the number of homes sold was flat at 74 for each month but average sales prices rose almost 24% from $767,000 in September of 2010 to $948,000 for September of 2011. From September 2010 to September 2011 in condo sales, number of sales is up 21% and average sales price continues to decline to just over 35%. A major contributor to this decline was sales in lower Deer Valley where last year there was one sale with a sales price of $2,289,000 and this September there was again one condo sold but sold for $514,000. This shows a decrease in sales price of 77.5%. Now we know condo prices in Deer  Valley haven't decreased 77%; this is just a function of what sold this year compared to what sold last year. I believe that this holds true for the average sales price of homes and condos overall. I do not believe that home prices have increased 17-24% or that condo prices have dropped 27-36%, but rather more expensive homes are once again selling, but buyers are looking for the lower priced condos.

Also a continuing trend we've been following all year: the number of new listings continues to decrease. Year-to-date, 2010 to 2011, the number of new homes listed is down 15.6% and number of condos listed year-to-date is down 18.9%. Looking at September 2010 versus September 2011 the number of new homes listed was down almost 26% and number of new condos listed decreased 31%. I think we have several factors going on here of which I think the major factor is that many of our sellers are not desperate to sell, not in trouble, and are willing to wait until the market starts to return. This is also the message that most agents are telling their sellers: unless you really want to sell and are willing to price it according to today's market, don't sell. However, if the trend continues of number of sales increasing each month and numbers of new properties being listed decreases, something has to give and we're starting to see this. We're seeing well-priced properties selling quickly and we're seeing more and more multiple offers. With the economy continuing to waffle along and interest rates running historically low, buyers are definitely taking advantage of this opportunity and are purchasing. We know there will come a time when resort real estate cannot be purchased for today's prices and interest rates are not this low and we as agents will be hearing "I should have bought back then." If you're in the market for resort real estate don't let this be you.

Each week brings us closer to the opening week of ski season. Deer Valley opens in about 6 weeks so continue the leg workouts, the core body workouts and start focusing on aerobics. See you on the mountain this winter!

Fall Colors and Snow

Well the much-anticipated snow storm arrived on schedule last week and snowed off and on here for several days. Sunday morning it finally started to clear up so I drove up in the local mountains to take some very pretty pictures of snow-capped mountains blending in with the fall colors. It really is a magical time of year. But as the ground is still quite warm, all the snow down low has melted off. I do suspect that the higher elevations' north-facing slopes now have snow for the remainder of the year.

Last week's paper published the story that the Hotel Park City had signed an agreement with Marriott Hotels to be part of their flagship hotel chain. Well, this was a bit premature, as while the Hotel Park City is moving that direction and is close to signing, the deal has not been inked yet. From what I hear it is extremely likely this will happen and I think it will be a good benefit for condo owners at Hotel Park City as Marriott brings lots of name recognition and useful insights.

The big news this week is that the readers of Ski Magazine voted Deer Valley as the #1 Ski Resort in North America for the 5th season in a row. What makes this most remarkable is that no resort has received the #1 ranking 5 times, let alone in 5 consecutive years. Park City Mountain Resort received recognition as the #1 Family Resort and #6 overall. This is a tribute to not only our wonderful resorts, but also to the town of Park City, and all of the shop, restaurant and resort employees who strive to make every visitor feel welcome.

In other local news going on, grading for the Canyons Resort Golf Course is actually under way! Finally, after what seems to be an eternity of infighting, the various landowners have settled their differences and course construction has started. This will be extremely good news for Canyons Resort and owners of condos at Canyons Resort as this should make it a stand alone resort in Park City.

In other Canyons news in last week's post I had talked about the proposed lift connecting Canyons and Solitude Resort. This has been and continues to be a hot topic of conversation around town and interestingly enough in last Wednesday's paper there was a very well-written letter from a local skier in support of the lift. While he brought up many very good points I'm afraid that the majority of Parkites are either still against the proposal or at best skeptical. This debate reminds me of a debate that went on here in the late 1980s concerning the idea that Park City had of putting in a lift connecting Main Street  Park City to the resort. This lift as envisioned would cross Park Avenue (one of the main entrances into town) and unload right in the commercial district. At the time, I remember being quite surprised at how vocal and widespread the opposition to this was. Well, the lift did go in, the ski run crosses Park Avenue as does the lift and it accesses hotels and restaurants in downtown Park City. Since this has gone in I've heard no opposition, just kudos for what a good idea it was. Will this be the same result as the Canyons' proposal to hook up with Solitude? Who knows, but I will certainly keep you posted as to how it's going.

Other than that it's a pretty slow time of the year and everyone is just enjoying a bit of relaxation before winter madness starts. Wolf Creek Resort in southeastern Colorado received over 3 feet of snow and is the first resort in the US to open. I have seen several videos posted on the web of people skiing Alta so it's not far away. Continue working out and I look forward to seeing you skiing this winter.