On September 18 I had an interview with KPCW, our local Park City station, and was asked to speak about the Rocky Montain Resorts. Click on the link below to listen to this interview.
http://www.pcboardofrealtors.com/FilesGeneralMembers/Statistics/RMRA/Dennis%20Hanlon%20Presentation/dennis_hanlon_9-18.mp3
Showing posts with label The Fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Fed. Show all posts
Friday, October 3, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Consumer outlook up, housing bottom may be near
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK -Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested that a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9, up from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006, and is ahead of the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January — but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.
"It's still too early to call a bottom" on both confidence and housing, said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.
Sales of new homes rose in July, but still fell short of economists' expectations, and home prices continued to sink. Still, the July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.
"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. However, "overall readings are still quite low by historical standards, and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
Economists and investors closely monitor consumer sentiment as consumer spending represents about two-thirds of all economic activity.
Falling gas prices in recent weeks helped boost consumers' mood, Franco said. Gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations nationwide, released Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.70 on Friday.
Despite that, gas nationally was almost 95 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, and the volatility in oil prices are a big concern for investors. But Tuesday's reports helped offset a spike in oil prices that rose out of concerns Hurricane Gustav might hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.86, or 0.05 percent, to 11,392.11.
The Conference Board's index that measures shoppers' current assessment of the economy declined to 63.2 from 65.8 in July. But the one that gauges their outlook over the next six months jumped to 52.8 from 42.7 in July. The 10-point increase marked the biggest gain since November 2005, when the economic fallout of hurricane Katrina was subsiding.
Franco said that declines in the Present Situation Index, both in term of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating.
While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.
"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report showed that 14 cities in the monthly index showed improvement from May to June, but nine recorded positive returns. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units, the most since April. But sales in June had dropped to a pace of just 503,000 — down from previous estimates of 530,000 — to mark the worst performance since September 1991.
Economists projected sales to drop in July, but expected the pace to be around 525,000. Given June's sharp downward revision, the level of home sales in July wound up to be less than analysts were anticipating.
The Consumer Confidence report — derived from responses received through Aug. 19 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed people's current assessment of the labor market turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.0 percent from 30.2 percent in July, while those who found them "plentiful" declined to 13.1 percent from 13.6 percent. Their outlook for what's ahead in the labor market was less gloomy. The percent anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent.
—
AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa in Washington and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
2008-08-26 13:37:48
NEW YORK -Americans felt better about the economy in August, as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest boost in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested that a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9, up from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006, and is ahead of the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January — but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.
"It's still too early to call a bottom" on both confidence and housing, said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. However, the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.
Sales of new homes rose in July, but still fell short of economists' expectations, and home prices continued to sink. Still, the July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.
"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. However, "overall readings are still quite low by historical standards, and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."
Economists and investors closely monitor consumer sentiment as consumer spending represents about two-thirds of all economic activity.
Falling gas prices in recent weeks helped boost consumers' mood, Franco said. Gas prices have dropped 15 cents a gallon in the last two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations nationwide, released Sunday. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline at self-serve stations was $3.70 on Friday.
Despite that, gas nationally was almost 95 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, and the volatility in oil prices are a big concern for investors. But Tuesday's reports helped offset a spike in oil prices that rose out of concerns Hurricane Gustav might hit installations in the Gulf of Mexico in coming days. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.86, or 0.05 percent, to 11,392.11.
The Conference Board's index that measures shoppers' current assessment of the economy declined to 63.2 from 65.8 in July. But the one that gauges their outlook over the next six months jumped to 52.8 from 42.7 in July. The 10-point increase marked the biggest gain since November 2005, when the economic fallout of hurricane Katrina was subsiding.
Franco said that declines in the Present Situation Index, both in term of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating.
While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.
"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller report showed that 14 cities in the monthly index showed improvement from May to June, but nine recorded positive returns. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units, the most since April. But sales in June had dropped to a pace of just 503,000 — down from previous estimates of 530,000 — to mark the worst performance since September 1991.
Economists projected sales to drop in July, but expected the pace to be around 525,000. Given June's sharp downward revision, the level of home sales in July wound up to be less than analysts were anticipating.
The Consumer Confidence report — derived from responses received through Aug. 19 of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households — showed people's current assessment of the labor market turned bleaker.
Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32.0 percent from 30.2 percent in July, while those who found them "plentiful" declined to 13.1 percent from 13.6 percent. Their outlook for what's ahead in the labor market was less gloomy. The percent anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent.
—
AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa in Washington and J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
2008-08-26 13:37:48
Friday, August 15, 2008
An interesting article...
Editor’s Note: The following information is compiled from a White Paper recently released by the author. The White Paper is titled, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about Housing Market” and can be accessed by clicking here.
RISMedia, Aug. 14, 2008 - When it comes to the national housing market, there is a lot of gloom and doom in the daily newspaper. Just look at a few recent headlines:
“Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble” - USA Today, 7/16/08“Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips” - New York Times, 7/27/2008“Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall” - The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/2008
“Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper everyday.” - Phil Gramm, top economic advisor to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Lost amid the uproar caused by Gramm’s proclamation that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” was a breath of economic fresh air to Realtors nationwide.
The economic recession that the United States is facing has been portrayed in the media as being brought about by the rising cost of oil and the “burst bubble” in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil continues to stand at near record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?
A recent report contributed to RISMedia, “Why 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” simply states “no.”
While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
“You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession,” said Gramm on July 9.
According to statistics from City-Data.com, 54 of the 101 cities with the largest population increase from 2000 - 2006 are located inside California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona - the four states most affected by decreasing home values.
As the populations in these areas have settled, home starts continued…and speculation caused a rapid rise in home values. Now, there is an enormous real estate surplus, and those same four states are witnessing an economic period of leveling out.
Just because four states are still falling, and 11 other states continue to try and stabilize doesn’t mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge. According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company’s “Economic & Real Estate Trends” report for Summer 2008, almost 68% of the nation’s 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter when Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI’s calculations.
For nearly 63% of Americans, the worst of the “housing crisis” seems to be over. As recently as late July, while economists were still not ready to call a bottom, positive signs began to show for home sales and home values.
To access the complete White Paper, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” click here.
John Benson is a real estate analyst who helped lay the groundwork for many startups across the Mid-Atlantic, and now works with Realtors in the region as a new media and marketing consultant. He welcomes your questions and comments. Contact him via e-mail: jbenson304@gmail.com.
RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.
RISMedia, Aug. 14, 2008 - When it comes to the national housing market, there is a lot of gloom and doom in the daily newspaper. Just look at a few recent headlines:
“Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble” - USA Today, 7/16/08“Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips” - New York Times, 7/27/2008“Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall” - The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/2008
“Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper everyday.” - Phil Gramm, top economic advisor to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Lost amid the uproar caused by Gramm’s proclamation that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” was a breath of economic fresh air to Realtors nationwide.
The economic recession that the United States is facing has been portrayed in the media as being brought about by the rising cost of oil and the “burst bubble” in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil continues to stand at near record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?
A recent report contributed to RISMedia, “Why 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” simply states “no.”
While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007.
“You’ve heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession,” said Gramm on July 9.
According to statistics from City-Data.com, 54 of the 101 cities with the largest population increase from 2000 - 2006 are located inside California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona - the four states most affected by decreasing home values.
As the populations in these areas have settled, home starts continued…and speculation caused a rapid rise in home values. Now, there is an enormous real estate surplus, and those same four states are witnessing an economic period of leveling out.
Just because four states are still falling, and 11 other states continue to try and stabilize doesn’t mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge. According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company’s “Economic & Real Estate Trends” report for Summer 2008, almost 68% of the nation’s 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter when Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI’s calculations.
For nearly 63% of Americans, the worst of the “housing crisis” seems to be over. As recently as late July, while economists were still not ready to call a bottom, positive signs began to show for home sales and home values.
To access the complete White Paper, “60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” click here.
John Benson is a real estate analyst who helped lay the groundwork for many startups across the Mid-Atlantic, and now works with Realtors in the region as a new media and marketing consultant. He welcomes your questions and comments. Contact him via e-mail: jbenson304@gmail.com.
RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Presidents' Week in Park City
It is Presidents' Week in Deer Valley; the town is full and the skiing is terrific. After what seems like months of snowfall every day, we had five days of sunshine which brought smiles to everyone. The sunny days definitely make us feel like spring is coming. The Beach at Deer Valley was full of visitors basking in the sun, with perfectly groomed runs to delight the skiers.
The big news in real estate is the drop in interest rates by the federal government and even more importantly, the Fed is looking at increasing the conforming loan amount, possibly up to over $700,000. If this does occur, it could have a tremendous effect on real estate as many of the lower Deer Valley condos are and most condos near the Park City resort would now qualify for conforming loans rather than jumbo loans. This could mean up to a one percent decrease in interest rate that borrowers would be paying for condos here which would have two effects: it would allow buyers to qualify for a higher priced and nicer condo as well as reducing their monthly payments Stay tuned for further posts on this as I will keep you updated as more information comes out. For now, come out and visit us, as this is the best ski year that I can remember since the 80’s.
The big news in real estate is the drop in interest rates by the federal government and even more importantly, the Fed is looking at increasing the conforming loan amount, possibly up to over $700,000. If this does occur, it could have a tremendous effect on real estate as many of the lower Deer Valley condos are and most condos near the Park City resort would now qualify for conforming loans rather than jumbo loans. This could mean up to a one percent decrease in interest rate that borrowers would be paying for condos here which would have two effects: it would allow buyers to qualify for a higher priced and nicer condo as well as reducing their monthly payments Stay tuned for further posts on this as I will keep you updated as more information comes out. For now, come out and visit us, as this is the best ski year that I can remember since the 80’s.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Big News at the Canyons!
The headline news this past week is that the disputed sale of the Canyons resort to either Vail or Talisker is closer to being resolved. Both Talisker Corporation and Vail have been battling each other all summer for the rights to purchase the Canyons resort. Earlier in the summer, Talisker had announced that it had reached a deal with American Ski Corp., the current owner of the canyons to purchase the resort for $100 million. Immediately after this announcement, Vail resorts claimed that they had rights to purchase the resort and filed a motion in federal court in Denver to block the sale of the resort to Talisker. At the end of October, after hearing arguments from both sides, the federal court ruled that Vail had lost out in a fair, competitive bidding situation, and that the court would not block the sale of the Canyons resort to Talisker Corp. While there still are some hurdles to overcome, this was a significant step for Talisker to proceed with the purchase. Talisker is hoping to complete the purchase before the end of this year.
As a result, savvy investors are looking to properties at the Canyons resort, either the new developments at the base or vacant land in the Colony, as an excellent investment opportunity. With the federal reserve having cut interest rates again, and the overall real estate market slower than in the past years, this appears to be an excellent time to invest in Park City.
As a result, savvy investors are looking to properties at the Canyons resort, either the new developments at the base or vacant land in the Colony, as an excellent investment opportunity. With the federal reserve having cut interest rates again, and the overall real estate market slower than in the past years, this appears to be an excellent time to invest in Park City.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
