Snow, Snow, Snow

This September was the most beautiful that I have seen here in Park City. Every day was bright blue skies and warm balmy days. With some early cold weather that we had in August and all of the rain in June, the trees turned a little earlier than normal, but were particularly vibrant this year. Then today arrived, September 30, 2009 and we were reminded that we do live in the mountains. A very strong cold front arrived during the night with thunder, lightening and howling winds. We woke up this morning to rain which quickly changed to snow. It has been snowing all day here in Park City and while it is not sticking to the ground here in town the mountains are certainly white. The extended forecast is for more snow off and on for the next week. A certain reminder that winter is on its way and ski season is not far. While the resorts generally open in mid November, I have seen excellent skiing on Halloween…perhaps this will be one of those years.

In real estate news the real estate recovery seems to be continuing here in Park City. After a dismal start to the year the summer months were stronger than last year and the trend is continuing. For example, the number of properties under contract but not yet closed is down this year from last. There have been 750 homes pended this year and 912 in 2008. The number of pending sales increased for the month of August, 116 this year compared to 110 in 2008. Year to date, condos and land pending sales were down 16% and 42%. However during the month of August, condo sales were up 79% and while land sales were still down compared to last year they were down less than 30%. In numbers of actual closed listings year to date, we are off about 34%, 635 closed this year compared to 969 in 2008. The number of single family homes sold in the month of August was even last year and condo sales were off about 15%. The big drop in sales so far this year compared to last year is in vacant land, only 9 parcels closed this year compared to 22 in 2008. This reflects the caution of spec builders right now. With the lack of new home starts here in Park City and the likelihood that there will not be many for the next year to year and a half, newly completed homes are a rarity and are sought after if they are within the city limits. In the Deer Valley area there are less than a handful of newly completed homes for buyers to choose from. Everything else is either an existing older home or at best an older home that has been remodeled or updated. I expect that as a result of this new homes may be in demand this ski season. Scarcity has always been a significant driving factor in real estate.
With the new snow in the mountains as a backdrop for the bright gold’s and red’s, if there is any way to come out to the mountains this is the time to do it.

The Mountains are on Fire

The mountains are on fire with color right now. The oaks and maples are brilliant red and the aspens are just starting to turn gold. Contrasted against the deep blue sky when driving or walking around town everyone’s gaze is captivated by the scenery. This weekend looks to be the last warm weekend until next summer so we will all be outside enjoying a variety of activities.

In real estate news two new projects in Deer Valley are just about completed. The St. Regis in the Deer Crest area is scheduled to start closing on units later in October. The St. Regis is the first true five star hotel to be built in the area and we are all eagerly awaiting its opening. Another project in the Empire pass area of Deer Valley called Flagstaff will also be completed for the ski season. Now that it is nearing completion sales have picked up with three new transactions in the last two weeks. These were 3 bedroom units selling the $3 million range.

With the ski season rapidly approaching I am getting more calls for buyers looking to pick up a ski home for this year while prices are still low. We have an excellent selection of homes and condos both on and off the mountain and most sellers are still willing to negotiate on their prices. This is the perfect combination for buyers and the savvy ones are taking advantage.

Still #1

While it has not hit the newsstands yet we have heard that the next issue of Ski Magazine will show Deer Valley Resort as the #1 rated ski resort in North America for the 3rd year in a row. The rankings are the result of a survey that Ski Magazine sends to its readers each year. Readers are asked to rate the resorts that they have visited on the quality of their experience in a number of key areas. The survey asks readers to rank their experience in areas such as; customer service, snow quality, variety of terrain, run’s, on mountain food service, and proximity to night life and other amenities as well as their overall experience. For the 3rd year in a row the readers of Ski Magazine have rated Deer Valley as their #1 favorite resort in North America. Given the number and quality of western ski resorts, this is quite an accomplishment and Deer Valley is justifiably proud that its commitment to their guests is acknowledged and appreciated. While I have not seen the rest of the survey, Park City and The Canyons Resorts are usually ranked in or near the top 10.

In looking at real estate pended sales for each month the trend that I noted that began in March continued through August and has strengthened. Each month since March the number of pended sales has increased from the previous month and is now similar to where we were in September 2007.

There is still much debate as to whether the economic recovery that we are seeing is real and sustainable. On one side, the feeling is that the continued high unemployment rate remains to be a detriment to the recovery and that as a result the economy is destined to grow weakly. The feeling is that until more Americans are employed consumer spending will continue to be slow. While there will certainly be spikes in spending brought on by stimulus programs such as “Cash for Clunkers”, these are temporary spikes and not sustainable.

On the other hand, optimists say that the rebound will help kick start a self- sustaining recovery where improved confidence leads to consumers and business’s starting to spending more. Time will tell which of these scenarios will come true, or will it be somewhere in between?
What I have seen in Park City is that in many areas the number of sales from January 1st through August 31st comparing 2008 to 2009 there were more sales in this time frame in 2009. However, the average sold price was generally down in 2009 compared to the same time frame in 2008. This reinforces my statements several weeks ago that the bargain hunter buyers have moved from a “wait and see” to a “buy” position. It is certainly true that if a property is not perceived as a bargain, buyers are rarely interested in it right now.

I do believe that as the bargain properties are removed from the market we will see a slow and gradual return of prices. I am already seeing some signs of this as sellers are beginning to not give away quite as much as they were a month ago. Fall is typically a transition month for sales where we start to see more investors and 2nd home buyers looking to pick up a ski property for the upcoming ski season. I think that the next two months are going to be very telling whether the recovery of the market in Park City is real or is just a temporary correction.
September has been particularly spectacular with warm days, cool nights, and right now the mountains are full of red oak and maple trees. Most everyone feels that this is the best month of the year so come out and visit us and experience fall in the Rocky Mountains.

Fall In the Mountains

Last week I spoke about the Miner’s Day celebrations here in Park City, the parade, festivities in the park and the mucking and drilling contest.

September is a magical time of transition between summer and fall. The days are still quite warm and the nights are noticeably cooler. Because of the cold weather that we had in August, the oak and maple trees have turned and are dotting the hillside with reds and oranges. Hiking and mountain biking are the best right now, the trails are un-crowded and the contrast between the bright blue sky and colorful trees is something to behold.

The three Park City ski resorts are feverishly working to complete summer projects before the first snow of winter arrives. While the economic recession of the past year prevented any of the resorts from significant expansions, there is still much to do over the summer months. The resorts spend the off season doing maintenance on all the chair lifts, clearing aspen growth from ski runs, and general maintenance around the resort to ensure the best quality of experience for our guests. Starting around October we will see the influx of seasonal workers arriving in town. This is a fun time because there is a lot of energy in anticipation of the upcoming ski season.

The real estate market here in Park City continues to improve on a monthly basis. This past week there were two very strong condominium sales in the Empire Pass area of Deer Valley in the high 2-3 million dollar range. In addition, the Dakota Mountain Lodge at the Canyons has just been completed and buyers that have purchased there in the last two years are now closing in their units. This is particularly interesting, as one might expect buyers to be very nervous to be closing on a property that they wrote a contract on two years ago. Fortunately we are seeing the values hold and the buyers are realizing that their investment is still financially sound.

This past week I was asked to help a client find a ski-in/ski-out rental condo for the Christmas-New Years holiday week. I was very surprised at what few choices were still available. There were only about 6 condos still available with ski-in/ski-out access. This is great news, as it looks like visitors will be coming out again and are making plans well in advance.
Next week I will have the most recent statistics from August to share with-you so look for this information in next week’s blog.!

Miners Day Weekend

This coming weekend most everyone is the U.S. will be celebrating Labor Day with parades, festivities and BBQ’s over the 3 day weekend. Here in Park City we celebrate our mining history and consequently re-named the holiday Miner’s Day.

Like everywhere else, we celebrate this with a parade, BBQ, music and festivities at the City Park. We add in the mining twist by bringing out old pneumatic mining drills and have mucking and drilling contests throughout the day. The drilling part of the contest involves taking the extremely heavy and awkward drills and drilling a series of holes in a slab of granite. This is a timed event with the person completing the drilling the in shortest amount of time the victor. The mucking involves an ore cart on a set of tracks and a pneumatic powered shovel in front. The miner lowers the shovel and powers the cart in to a pile of waste rock from the mine, hoists it up and dumps it into the cart. He then backs the cart up and moves in forward into the pile, repeating the process until the cart is full. Again this is a timed event. The contestants are past and current miners from Park City and the surrounding area. One of our other long standing traditions has unfortunately fallen by the wayside. This was the traditional wake up call on Miners day. Until recently at 6am on Miners day the town would light dynamite and explode for about 20 minutes to wake the town up. There was never any chance of sleeping through this as windows and walls shook from the concussion causing family pets to dive for cover and new residents to wonder what was going on.

In Real Estate news the real estate market continues to improve with each week seeming to be stronger than the last in the number of contracts written. This past Monday several Prudential agents were discussing the possibility that we may have passed the bottom of the market. Interestingly in talking with a good friend of mine who is an investment advisor with Smith Barney about downturns in the market, I made the comment that by the time the buying public realizes that we have reached the bottom of the stock market, it is already too late and the bottom has already passed. His reply surprised me when he said that studies have shown that investors who purchased 6 months after the bottom historically have made the largest profit. Can we apply the same analogy to real estate? Most probably so and if both are true that we are past the bottom of the market and are on the upswing and that investors purchasing in the next 6 months are most likely to realize the largest gains, this should be an interesting fall and winter season.

I recently found an article online about pending home sales rising for six months in a row. Click here to read this very interesting article or copy and paste this link into your browser: http://rismedia.com/2009-09-01/pending-home-sales-on-a-roll-up-for-sixth-straight-month/

Fall?

In an earlier blog I mentioned that August in the western mountains tends to start cooling off unlike much of the U.S. which is still sweltering underneath the summer sun. This August in particular has been quite cool with an early snow already and several early mornings of frost. This past weekend the mountain oak tree’s started turning and we are just beginning to see hints of red leaves spotting the mountain sides, a sure sign that Fall is near.

This past weekend Deer Valley Resort was the host to the annual Park City Jazz Festival. This was three days of great music, food and too much wine. Deer Valley is a terrific host in that they allow patrons to bring in picnic baskets and their favorite beverage. The headline act this year was Al Jarreau. While he is certainly getting up there in years, he can still perform with the best.
Now on to Real Estate news. Fall through early winter is quite active here, unlike Spring when the town is quiet and interest in real estate drops off dramatically. Buyers are looking to purchase their ski condo early enough to start booking rental reservations for the upcoming ski season. Sellers understand this so they are now putting units on the market so there is an excellent selection of properties to choose from. While we are certainly still in a buyers market I am beginning to see the first hints of a change. Several sellers recently have felt that the market, if not having already turned, is about to and are prepared to stay closer to the original asking price. I think that this fall and winter season may be quite interesting as buyers will still have the mindset of a bottoming real estate market and sellers may be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Click here to read an article about the real estate "turnaround" or copy and paste this link into your browser: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/08/27/could-the-end-be-near-housing-guru-shiller-senses-home-price-re/

First Snow

For the first time in my 25 years here in Park City it snowed in August. Last Saturday August 15th an unusually strong cold front brought the snow level down to mid mountain or about 8000 feet. While here in town at 7000 feet it was just a cold rain up at 10,000 feet an inch of snow accumulated. THIS IS WAY TO EARLY, particularly after a cold and rainy June. Six weeks of summer just is not enough. This was the second strong cold front to come through northern Utah in August with another forecast of cold weather to arrive this weekend. Hopefully this is a sign of a cold and snowy winter.

Ski resort towns are a different animal in that we actually look forward to snow storms during the winter months and the larger the storm the better. As Park City receives over 300 inches of snow per year we are very equip to handle snow and it generally takes a storm of upwards of 2 feet overnight to close schools or snarl traffic. It is not uncommon for storms to last a week or more.

But on to cheerier subjects….Real Estate. Comparing July 2009 vs. July 2008, this year 53 homes sold compared to 50 homes in 2008. Condominium sales saw an even larger change with 43 sales in 2009 compared to 33 in 2008. In addition, the average sales price rose from $645,000 in 2008 to nearly $738,000 in 2009. Interestingly, vacant land sales which have been on a decline for the last several years saw an increase from 18 sales in 2008 to 19 sales in 2009. See the graph posted above for sales trends for the last 14 months courtesy of the Park City Board of Realtors.

As fall approaches and buyers start looking for their ski property for this winter the upward trend that we have seen since late winter is very encouraging. I am hearing from many buyers that they feel now is the opportunity to pick up ski property while there are still bargains to be had. While the U.S. economy is certainly not out of the woods yet, it does appear that we are on a road to recovery. If the upward trend that we are seeing continues through the fall we may, by mid winter, be looking back to this time as the end of the bargains.

While it is certainly too early for autumn colors already, with the unusually cold weather I am expecting an early fall. September is one of the most beautiful months in Park City and if the leafs do start to change next month it will be a time not to miss.